Every part that occurs in sports activities has further context when seen from a sports activities betting perspective. From season-changing accidents to record-setting moments and a lot extra, the sports activities information cycle will continuously and considerably have an effect on the sports activities betting business.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, goals to supply followers a have a look at the sports activities betting tales which can be driving the dialog.
Key hyperlinks: Sports activities betting dwelling | NFL odds web page | School soccer odds web page | ESPN BET
Jan. 18: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ cowl downside may not matter in playoffs
Doug Greenberg: For over half of the 2024 common season, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs didn’t appear to be the back-to-back Tremendous Bowl champion juggernauts everybody anticipated them to be: The Chiefs had been profitable virtually each recreation however weren’t doing so in convincing style.
From Weeks 1 by way of 14, Kansas Metropolis went 4-9 in opposition to the unfold, which included an ATS dropping streak of seven video games from Weeks 8 by way of 14. The group’s eight outright victories with out protecting the unfold tied for essentially the most within the Tremendous Bowl period, in keeping with ESPN Analysis.
Patrick Mahomes is the one quarterback within the Tremendous Bowl period with a straight-up profitable file (35-24) in video games the place his group doesn’t cowl (minimal 5 video games); simply behind him is the nice Roger Staubach (32-33).
The Chiefs are nine-point favorites in opposition to the visiting Houston Texans to kick off the NFL divisional spherical, an enchanting quantity on condition that KC has not coated a diffusion this massive all season: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU however 0-7 ATS when laying a minimum of six factors this season, the longest such streak within the Tremendous Bowl period.
And but, regardless of all of the ATS inadequacy from the common season, Kansas Metropolis has been gaining steam within the betting markets, as the sport opened at a consensus Chiefs -7.5, however by Saturday morning, all main sportsbooks had come as much as a minimum of -8.5, with ESPN BET getting as much as -9.5.
The sportsbook reported 68.2% of cash backing KC’s unfold in comparison with 57.3% of the tickets, with different main books equally reporting constructive deal with splits supporting the Chiefs. FanDuel’s buying and selling group says that the early motion had been “surprisingly” extra cut up than anticipated, however the e-book will nonetheless “be cheering for the Texans.”
There’s some logic behind the cash. In addition to Kansas Metropolis (7-10), there was just one different playoff group that had a dropping ATS file within the common season — the Texans, who additionally went 7-10 in opposition to the quantity.
The Chiefs’ championship pedigree can also be seemingly taking part in a job in attracting large cash. Courting again to 2022, KC has coated the unfold in six straight playoff video games, tied for the fifth-longest such streak within the Tremendous Bowl period. The 2022 group that gained all of it was equally poor ATS within the common season.
Mahomes at all times appears to step up his recreation within the postseason, as his 13-5 ATS file is the third-best amongst quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 playoff begins since 1966; solely Jim Plunkett (8-2) and Eli Manning (9-3) have been higher.
Travis Kelce additionally elevates come January, posting larger receiving yards per recreation within the playoffs in comparison with the common season yearly since 2020. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in 13 straight playoff video games, and his quantity for Saturday is ready at 49.5 (juiced to -135) on ESPN BET, his lowest in any playoff recreation in that span.
Basically, although the Chiefs garnered an underperforming popularity all through the common season, the betting public is able to again them in full pressure now that their playoff run has arrived.
“It is the identical outdated music and dance for the NFL,” BetMGM buying and selling supervisor Christian Cipollini mentioned by way of e mail. “The sportsbook wants the underdogs to cowl and is hoping for one of many canines to win outright to interrupt up parlays.”
The opposite juggernaut
At ESPN BET, the Chiefs’ moneyline represents the second-most chosen wager in parlays, behind the Detroit Lions’ moneyline.
On Saturday evening, Detroit begins its quest to deliver dwelling the franchise’s elusive first Tremendous Bowl with a showdown in opposition to the red-hot Washington Commanders. As of Saturday morning, the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at ESPN BET and have been getting loads of help from the betting public market-wide.
Between the explosive offenses and Detroit’s banged-up protection, sportsbooks and bettors alike expect fireworks, as the sport’s 55.5-point over/below — up from 54.5 at open — is the best complete in any playoff recreation since Tremendous Bowl LV (2020) between the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It is nothing new for this iteration of the Lions, who’ve performed within the 5 highest-total video games within the NFL this season, together with Saturday’s contest; the earlier 4 video games have seen a fair cut up in overs vs. unders at 2-2.
Jan. 14: Bettors fade Ohio State as CFP title recreation unfold strikes towards Notre Dame
David Purdum: The road on the School Soccer Playoff Nationwide Championship recreation dropped early this week, with sportsbooks reporting sharp cash on underdog Notre Dame.
On Jan. 10, Ohio State opened as a consensus 9.5-point favourite over the Combating Irish in one of many largest spreads in a championship recreation through the BCS/CFP period. Some bettors thought the road was too large and got here in early on Notre Dame, inflicting sportsbooks to drop the road to Ohio State -8.
“There wasn’t any information that drove this motion, however moderately simply sharp wagering that shot down this unfold from 9.5 to eight.5,” Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook informed ESPN. “We’ve got seen a gentle stream of motion on Notre Dame so far, which was stunning on condition that we had seen an onslaught of Ohio State cash each on video games and futures since their win in opposition to Tennessee.”
John Murray, vp of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, mentioned his store acquired a wager from a “very revered buyer” on Notre Dame +9.5 (-105) on Sunday.
“All the market moved down on the similar time,” Murray mentioned.
The road dropped to as little as Ohio State -7.5 on Monday, however has since settled again at a consensus -8. Feazel mentioned sharp bettors additionally wager in opposition to the Buckeyes forward of the semifinal matchup with Texas.
“The sharps imagine Ohio State’s numbers are overinflated out there,” Feazel mentioned. “I count on to see this line presumably come down barely nearer to 7.”
Jan. 12: Payments open as favorites over Ravens in battle of ‘finest two groups in NFL’
David Purdum: Solely three NFL playoff video games within the Tremendous Bowl period closed with a line of choose ’em in ESPN’s database. Subsequent week’s divisional spherical recreation in Buffalo has an opportunity to be the fourth.
The Buffalo Payments started the week as 1-point dwelling favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, however there was loads of volatility. The Payments opened as excessive as -2, however the line dropped to as little as choose ’em, earlier than settling again at -1 on Sunday evening. On Monday morning, the road moved to Ravens -1 at ESPN BET, however different books nonetheless have the Payments as the favourite.
The final playoff recreation with a closing moneyline of choose ’em was the 2019 wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles, who misplaced as 1-point favorites.
“We took an preliminary wager of $21,000 on Ravens +2 out of Louisiana, however motion will likely be restricted till all the video games are completed at this time,” Joey Feazel, soccer oddsmaker for Caesars Sportsbook, informed ESPN on Sunday.
Some oddsmakers have the Ravens power-rated forward of the Payments. Baltimore, at +475, has shorter Tremendous Bowl odds than Buffalo (+500) at ESPN BET.
“We expect they’re the 2 finest groups within the NFL,” John Murray, vp of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, mentioned. “Baltimore is power-rated larger, and that’s the reason they’re solely getting one level on the highway. Buffalo is a spot we do give a home-field benefit in.”
The Payments have been favored in 42 consecutive dwelling video games, the longest energetic streak within the NFL, in keeping with ESPN analysis. They haven’t been a house underdog since a Week 17 recreation in opposition to the Miami Dolphins in 2020.
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans within the different AFC divisional playoff recreation, however the line shortly moved to Chiefs -8.5
Dwelling groups had been 4-0 straight-up and in opposition to the unfold forward of the Sunday prime time recreation between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
