The Cubs and Kyle Tucker have prevented arbitration, studies Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The outfielder will make $16.5MM subsequent 12 months and received’t must go to a listening to. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports activities Administration.
Final week was the arbitration submitting deadline, which means that any groups and gamers who didn’t come to agreements needed to change submitting figures. The Cubs and Tucker didn’t agree, with the membership submitting at $15MM and Tucker at $17.5MM. The $2.5MM hole between their numbers was the most important of the 17 filings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Tucker for a $15.8MM wage this 12 months. If a listening to got here to move, the arbiter would have needed to choose both Tucker’s quantity or the membership’s, with no potential to choose a midpoint.
That made the chance of a listening to very excessive. Groups and gamers are allowed to proceed negotiating and free to achieve offers after the submitting deadline, although most groups take a “file-and-trial” method as of late. Which means they’ve a coverage in opposition to doing one-year offers after the deadline, thus giving them leverage in wage talks. When a file-and-trial workforce does a deal after the deadline, it normally entails an additional 12 months, maybe as an possibility. That stops it from getting used as a precedent in future arbitration calculations, so the general pattern of file-and-trial insurance policies is to sluggish the inflation of salaries.
The Cubs have been a file-and-trial workforce, as most are as of late, however have made an exception right here. Not one of the reporting on Tucker’s deal means that there’s any type of possibility. He’s an impending free agent and glorious participant, so he wasn’t going to provide away a free agent 12 months on a membership possibility. The 2 sides may have agreed to some type of mutual possibility that will by no means be picked up, however don’t seem to have completed so.
It’s unclear why the Cubs broke from their traditional coverage right here, paying Tucker past the midpoint of the submitting numbers and his MLBTR projection. Speculatively talking, it could possibly be as a result of he was simply acquired from the Astros and the Cubs didn’t wish to tarnish the start of their relationship with their new star participant. An arbitration listening to can generally result in friction between participant and workforce, with Corbin Burnes with the Brewers and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals some latest examples. Burnes spoke of his unfavourable arbitration expertise in February of 2023, whereas Helsley recounted his to Foul Territory in March of final 12 months.
Tucker has beforehand gone to an arbitration listening to. He first certified for arbitration going into 2023, with he and the Astros unable to achieve an settlement for his wage that 12 months. He filed at $7.5MM and the Astros at $5MM, with the membership in the end rising victorious. The 2 sides prevented arbitration for 2024 by agreeing to a $12MM wage.
It’s additionally maybe potential that the Cubs wish to maintain Tucker for the long run and didn’t wish to bitter the connection with a foul first impression. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer just lately appeared on the Cubs Rekap Podcast with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer (hat tip to Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation) and mentioned Tucker’s scenario, downplaying his concern concerning the relationship with Tucker. He additionally stated that there are not any conversations about an extension. Although the Cubs would like to have Tucker long run, Hoyer prompt they might most likely method him about contract talks later, suggesting that taking part in in entrance of the house crowd at Wrigley would assist their probabilities.
Whereas it might be true that Tucker will benefit from the expertise of being a Cub this 12 months, there are nonetheless causes to anticipate an extension isn’t doubtless. He’s been top-of-the-line gamers in baseball just lately. Within the eyes of FanGraphs, he basically averaged 5 wins above alternative per 12 months from 2020 to 2023. He produced 1.8 fWAR within the shortened 2020 season, then completed the subsequent three seasons with both 4.9 or 5.0 fWAR. In 2024, he took issues to a brand new stage with 4.2 fWAR in simply 78 video games, lacking important time attributable to a shin fracture.
He has hit .279/.358/.525 over these 5 seasons for a wRC+ of 143. He has stolen 88 bases and obtained sturdy grades for his outfield protection. His 20.9 fWAR over these years places him within the high 15 amongst all place gamers within the league. He doubtless would have been within the high ten if not for fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing it final 12 months.
On condition that manufacturing and the truth that Tucker is ready to be a free agent going into his age-29 season, he’s nicely positioned for a major payday. To lock up an MVP-caliber participant a 12 months earlier than free company isn’t low cost, as proven on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Mookie Betts obtained $365MM from the Dodgers whereas Francisco Lindor obtained $341MM from the Mets. The most important deal in Cubs’ historical past is their $184MM pact with Jason Heyward, so they might doubtless need to double that to maintain Tucker from turning into a free agent subsequent winter.
