Do the Celtics need to use Jayson Tatum more often to win?

DENVER — The Celtics have shifted to enjoying Jayson Tatum for everything of first quarters this season after letting Jaylen Brown set the tone lately. It has allowed Tatum to extend his scoring, acquire and keep early momentum in video games, whereas Brown has made probably the most of his transition by captaining the second unit and specializing in playmaking.

It began on Opening Night time when Tatum unloaded 4-of-6 three-point capturing over the Knicks, on his solution to 37 factors on 14-of-18 discipline aim makes an attempt. And since — save for just a few exceptions — Boston opened with Tatum to nice impact.

Joe Mazzulla nonetheless believed in rolling with whomever between Brown and Tatum have it going early, giving Brown alternatives to return to his former function. Generally, they each play total first quarters, like final month’s get proper blowout win over the Pacers. That’s led to combined workloads game-to-game for Tatum, who ranks sixth in utilization proportion (30.8%) beneath MVP rivals Giannis Antetokounmpo (36%), Nikola Jokic (31.5%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (33.5%).

There’s a wonderful line between taking full benefit of Tatum’s creation capability in a heliocentric function and using the gifted roster round him. However Boston has been extra profitable when it has used Tatum extra, enhancing to 10-3 in Denver when he exceeds 30% utilization. Conversely, the Celtics fell to 6-5 at Oklahoma Metropolis when he falls beneath that threshold, in line with StatMuse. A few of that’s self-fulfilling, with stats primarily based on scoring like free throws, discipline targets and assists growing a participant’s price. In fact, extra of these result in wins and fewer lead to losses.

“Are you aware what utilization price is? Are you aware how one can calculate it?,” Mazzulla requested earlier than the Nuggets sport. “(It’s) divided by possessions. So you possibly can nonetheless be concerned in case you make a possible help … so I believe on the finish of the day, crucial factor is ensuring that every one of our guys are in place to make performs for one another and there’s clearly loads of time the place Tatum needs to be Tatum and he needs to be aggressive — there’s no query about that. I believe he’s among the finest gamers within the league at discovering that steadiness of when it’s time to take over and when it’s time to offer the sport what it wants.”

That’s the system that labored in 2024, and whereas the roster composition and roles stay just like final 12 months, it’s not the identical season. Shooters round Tatum have suffered worse outcomes this 12 months, and Tatum is experiencing a brand new profession excessive in scoring effectivity (55.7 eFG%) and passing prowess (24.7 AST%). The on/off numbers aren’t as stark as in previous years (seventy fifth percentile) and mirror a extra competent offense (+2.8 factors per 100 possessions higher) with Tatum on the ground in comparison with off. Brown continued serving to Boston keep its dominance (+10.9 internet score, Brown on, Tatum off) with the second unit, although Tatum takes them to new heights in his restricted minutes (+13 internet score).

These are all slim methods of trying on the higher group dynamic, together with the affect of gamers going out and in of the lineup. The Celtics suffered in Oklahoma Metropolis, the place solely Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet scored within the second half, from Tatum not taking up the offense. Then, he launched 23 pictures at Denver to energy a powerful begin and late 15-0 run that left him +23 with 29 factors regardless of struggling 1-of-9 from three.

“It’s nearly studying the sport,” Tatum stated that morning. “It’s not constructed for me to simply dominate the ball or the sport night-in and night-out. We simply bought too many gifted gamers and that’s not the way in which we play. It’s positively sure instances and intervals the place you need to assault, be extra aggressive and search for your self, however I simply felt like a whole lot of instances I made the fitting cross (in opposition to the Thunder) and we simply didn’t hit pictures at a standard of a price as we do. It’s only a make or miss league on some nights.”

This isn’t to say that Tatum ought to revert to the one-on-one tendencies that tortured Celtics followers in 2021 and led to him breaking a playoff turnover document in 2022. It’s a matter of whether or not Tatum’s scoring development since then would enable for a extra environment friendly Boston offense by using him extra usually. He leads the NBA amongst gamers with no less than 3.0 possessions per sport with 1.20 factors per possession in isolation. Recognizing up, he ranks within the 61st percentile and is within the 81st percentile of pick-and-roll creators. He produces as many factors per possession posting up as Domantas Sabonis. Tatum’s a 93rd percentile cutter and even carves out 1.12 PPP as a curler.

As Mazzulla talked about, Tatum can create offense exterior of these conditions dictated by a possession ending in a shot, turnover or free throws immediately from his involvement. That results in the talk from June’s Finals over whether or not Tatum performed properly regardless of his scoring numbers plummeting. He drew crowds and moved the ball out of them, usually his function in Boston’s offense that typically makes use of Tatum as a decoy to free the group’s different gamers.

“We’re clearly at our greatest when he’s tremendous aggressive and we’re at our greatest when our guys are aggressive, so proceed to work that steadiness and it’s a credit score to him understanding that steadiness,” Mazzulla stated. “I do know that may be troublesome for him, however on the similar time, (utilization is) most likely a ineffective stat as a result of it doesn’t depend into his affect. He had 15 potential assists final sport. If these pictures go in, he has a distinct stat line from that standpoint. So, I believe he’s doing an ideal job, no matter what protection that he’s in, of creating the fitting play, whether or not it’s for himself or for different individuals. When he’s aggressive, that’s after we’re at our greatest.”

This dialog at all times returns to Brown, who’s down from 55.7% to 51.7% capturing two-pointers, 35.4% to 32.5% on threes and turning the ball over at a barely greater proportion over final 12 months whereas taking extra pictures every evening. His aggression, tempo and skill to show protection into offense stay essential to the group. Like in previous years although, he and Tatum’s offensive runs can commerce off in waves. When one emerges early, like Brown did on the Thunder, it might depart the opposite out of the sport or looking out the place to slot in.

Brown has expressed the shift away from logging all the first as an adjustment, one he’s made one of the best of by growing his help price by practically three factors. The system for this group works when pictures fall. After they don’t, there’s a case, by way of utilization price (32% on Tuesday) or eye take a look at, that Tatum can carry this group when the offense dries up extra usually.

“Yeah, I imply he nonetheless handed. I believe he had 10-12 potential assists, however once more, it’s that steadiness,” Mazzulla stated after the sport. “We wish him to be nice each evening. We’re by no means gonna ask him or anybody of our guys to be much less of themselves. It’s simply having an understanding of giving the sport what it wants at that individual time and put us in place to win, no matter which may be. So, he did an ideal job of that tonight all through the sport, defensively as properly. I believe he gave up two threes to Porter to begin the sport and after that he was very, very intentional defensively and simply as a lot on the offensive finish.”