Tucker Trade Brings Astros Back to Earth, Wakes Cubs From Hibernation

When Juan Soto signed with the Mets this week, there have been 4 events who ought to’ve been celebrating: First, the Mets, who nabbed the largest on-base menace since Barry Bonds, and within the course of bought to blow raspberries at their previous cash neighbors. Second, Soto himself, who was already grotesquely rich however is now due the sort of lucre that may enable him to oppress multitudes if he so chooses. Third, Scott Boras, who along with being paid a good-looking fee proved that he nonetheless had his mojo after a mortifying 2023-24 offseason.

The fourth winner: Kyle Tucker. The “next-best factor” to a 26-year-old free agent with a .421 profession OBP, to somebody who’s projected by ZiPS to build up greater than 100 WAR, is… effectively there’s no such animal. However Tucker is as shut as you’ll get nowadays. If Soto is value $51 million a yr, what’s Tucker value? I don’t know. Neither do the Houston Astros, however they’re clearly not concerned about discovering out.

On Friday, Houston traded the presumptive prime free agent in subsequent yr’s class to the Chicago Cubs in change for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and third base prospect Cam Smith.

Tucker will enter free company after his age-28 season — younger for a participant on the open market, however three years older than Soto — and whereas accidents restricted Tucker to 78 video games in 2024, he posted a really Soto-like line when he was wholesome: .289/.408/.585, for a 180 wRC+ and extra walks than strikeouts. Had he performed his customary 150-odd video games, he’d have cleared 40 house runs and eight WAR simply.

I regarded on the figures underlying Tucker’s breakout again in Might, and this was no BABIP-fueled scorching streak. Tucker was extra affected person than ever in 2024. He walked extra and hit higher as a result of he was extra disciplined and put extra balls within the air — a high quality that paid off enormous in Minute Maid Park, the place the Crawford Containers in left and the quick wall in proper make house runs plentiful.

Wrigley Subject isn’t fairly so homer-friendly; the partitions are shut within the energy alleys, however the wind is capricious. (Each time I go to Chicago, I want somebody would’ve warned me concerning the wind.) Baseball Savant has the previous jewel field because the Twenty first-most homer-friendly park within the majors over the previous three years, one spot behind Camden Yards, whose barrenness simply necessitated a redesign.

However let’s say Tucker’s monster half-season in 2024 is a one-off. Even when he regresses all the way in which to his earlier type, he’ll nonetheless be the Cubs’ finest place participant. For those who extrapolate his 2020 stats out over a 162-game season, Tucker produced both 4.9 or 5.0 WAR yearly from 2020 to 2023. Throughout Soto’s free company, you heard complaints about his protection or baserunning, as a result of some folks will discover a motive to nitpick about all the things.

You’ll be able to’t degree the identical cost in opposition to Tucker, who stole 30 bases in 2023 and 25 the yr earlier than that, regardless of missing top-end pace. He gained a Gold Glove and put up a 5-OAA season as not too long ago as 2022. This isn’t a DH within the making.

The Astros won’t be the juggernaut they had been half a decade in the past, and their run of seven straight ALCS appearances got here to an finish this previous October, however they’re nonetheless the reigning champion in a extremely winnable division. Why would they wish to eliminate Tucker?

Nicely, it’s going to be costly to maintain him as soon as he hits free company a yr from now. And people two clauses should not impartial: Tucker is sort of sure to hit free company due to how a lot Soto simply blew the lid off earlier free agent contract norms.

When Giancarlo Stanton signed his record-breaking extension with the Marlins a decade in the past, he reset the ceiling for what a baseball participant may earn on one contract. For many of the Twenty first century, that restrict had been within the mid-$200 tens of millions, established by Alex Rodriguez and bolstered by Albert Pujols. And the restrict Stanton established — low-to-mid-$300 tens of millions — stayed in place arguably till this week.

Ultimately, as macro-level inflation and industry-specific income tendencies introduced more cash into the sport, a star may earn a Stanton-type contract, however for 9 or 10 years as an alternative of 13. Two fortunate souls — Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani — bought into the $400 million vary, however every was by acclimation the most effective participant on the planet after they signed their respective offers.

What’d that imply? It took one other paradigm-breaking participant, Soto, plus a wholesome market with a number of motivated bidders, plus the best agent within the historical past of the game with one thing to show, to maneuver the restrict out of the $400 tens of millions. However finally, $300 million contracts grew to become accessible not simply to Trout and Harper and Cole and Lindor, however to constant All-Stars like Trea Turner and even rookies like Yamamoto. The ceiling solely strikes as soon as a decade, however an increasing number of gamers get nearer and nearer to it.

Earlier than Soto, elite nook outfielders (Choose, Betts, Harper) made $300 million, roughly. That’s clearly modified. Tucker’s agent can now go to suitors and say, “Nicely, if my consumer is even two-thirds pretty much as good as Soto, then a $500 million contract appears cheap!”

Regardless of working pretty excessive payrolls all through their dynasty, the Astros have tended to not dip into that nook of the market. In truth, aside from Jose Altuve, they’ve been fairly ruthless about letting franchise icons stroll: Dallas Keuchel, George Springer, Cole, Carlos Correa, and Justin Verlander all rung the bell for large cash after leaving Houston. Simply this offseason, because the Astros are buying and selling Turner, they’re additionally procuring Framber Valdez and chopping Alex Bregman unfastened.

For a very long time — extra particularly, below the administration of GMs Jeff Luhnow and James Click on — the Astros had been savvy about turning the roster over. Solely 5 gamers and one main league coach — Altuve, Bregman, Verlander, Yuli Gurriel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Gary Pettis — stayed with the group from the 2017 championship workforce to the 2022 championship workforce. (“Hey, why was there a lot turnover on the teaching workers and entrance workplace?” I hear you asking. Don’t fear about it.)

Throughout that interval of fixed turnover, Houston additionally reaped the advantages of a farm system buoyed by a decade of ineptitude and/or tanking. For instance: The Astros put in Tucker of their lineup full time in 2020, however they drafted him no. 5 total in 2014, a decide they earned, if you wish to name it that, in 2014, their final shedding season.

Since then, the Astros haven’t solely been choosing decrease — Tucker was their final top-10 decide — they’ve been transport away their subsequent technology of contributors as a way to reinforce the workforce within the current day.

I don’t suppose proprietor Jim Crane has misplaced a second of sleep over buying and selling for Verlander or Grienke, however even a so-called sustainable winner can solely maintain itself for therefore lengthy. And whereas the Astros are accustomed to letting their stars stroll, they’ve heretofore kept away from cashing in on a participant like Tucker a yr early.

Buying and selling Tucker as an alternative of extending him, and even working it again for 2025 and banking a compensatory decide, is — and I’m sorry, I don’t know a kinder option to put this — very Tampa Bay Rays. It’s the sort of commerce you make once you’re constructing a workforce to make the playoff bubble as cheaply as potential, and is greater than a little bit undignified for a workforce that’s been as profitable because the Astros have been. Solely the Dodgers have a playoff streak so long as Houston’s, and solely the Dodgers can match the Astros’ 4 pennants and two World Sequence titles up to now decade. If Bregman indicators elsewhere and Valdez will get traded, I might not be stunned to see Houston drafting within the first half of the primary spherical as soon as extra in 2026.

With all that stated, the Astros may’ve achieved worse, contemplating that Tucker is just below workforce management for one yr and is unlikely to signal an extension. This commerce begs to be in comparison with the deal that despatched Betts to Los Angeles in 2020, and for the document I feel the Astros bought a greater return than the Crimson Sox did then.

Paredes is the largest title, a 30-homer man in 2023 and an All-Star this previous season. He turns 26 in February, and is eligible for arbitration for the primary time this winter, giving the Astros two further seasons of workforce management in comparison with Tucker. Paredes has performed all 4 infield positions within the majors, however nowadays he spends nearly all of his time on the corners. With Bregman’s probably departure, each first and third base are actually positions of want in Houston, and Paredes has been a reliable defender at each ends of the diamond.

For those who learn FanGraphs frequently, the one factor you most likely find out about Paredes is how he hit all these house runs. Particularly within the works of Ben Clemens, Paredes has nearly turn out to be a meme because the metonym for a lift-and-pull strategy.

Over the previous two seasons, Paredes has by far the best pull price on fly balls within the majors, and the second-highest fly ball price on pull-side batted balls, trailing solely Anthony Santander. That high quality made him right into a cult hero on the Trop, the place the left subject foul pole is simply 315 ft away. After Paredes’ midseason commerce to the Cubs, he struggled mightily, however Minute Maid Park — quickly to be Daikin Park — is Xanadu for reasonable house runs down the left subject line.

The pre- and post-trade splits would appear to point that Paredes is a hitter who wants a positive house park to be an average-or-better starter, however the Astros can provide him that.

Talking of hard-hitting third basemen, Smith would possibly find yourself being the headliner right here. The no. 14 total select of Florida State this previous July, he hit .387/.488/.654 with a ridiculous ninetieth percentile exit velocity of 112 mph in his draft yr. With the draft being as late because it his, Smith made it into solely 32 skilled video games throughout three ranges, however he hit .313/.396/.609 with 16 extra-base hits over 134 plate appearances. His quality-of-contact numbers weren’t fairly pretty much as good with a wooden bat, however he posted a most exit velo of 111 mph and an EV90 of 107 — effectively above the key league common — with an in-zone contact price of 84%.

Eric Longenhagen thinks that Smith can stick at third regardless of having below-average vary, and that his line drive-oriented swing may produce even higher energy numbers if he optimizes it for loft. (I’ll toss my very own two cents in right here and remind the reader that Tucker did this final season and went utterly busalooey.) The concern with any commerce of a famous person is that the return will find yourself being extra amount than high quality, and it’s tougher to re-create a star within the mixture than Moneyball made it look. Smith is Houston’s finest shot at getting an influence participant out of this commerce.

Wesneski, who got here to Chicago on the 2022 deadline within the deal that despatched Scott Effross to the Yankees, has been a serviceable spot starter and low-leverage reliever throughout 190 innings in a Cubs uniform. He throws 5 pitches, amongst them a four-seamer that sits round 94 mph and a low-80s slider that he’s leaned on an increasing number of as his profession’s gone on. One factor to look out for: Wesneski is comically homer-prone, having averaged 1.66 HR/9 in his profession, on a HR/FB price of 16.7%. Which, given Wesneski’s solid-but-unremarkable strikeout numbers, tanked his FIP and stored him inside half a win of substitute degree every of the previous two seasons.

The Astros have had some success growing aid pitchers over the previous few years, so perhaps they see one thing in Wesneski. However extra probably than not, the success of this commerce, from Houston’s perspective, will relaxation on Smith’s growth and Paredes’ potential to golf errors into the Crawford Containers.

I’ve been specializing in the Astros to date, partially as a result of their determination to jettison Tucker set this entire factor in movement, however partially as a result of Tucker’s influence on the Cubs is quite apparent: He’s going to be their finest place participant from the second he reveals up for spring coaching. Presumably by fairly a big margin.

The Cubs have spent many of the 2020s in a muddy center between contending and crapitude. They’ve made the occasional big-time transfer, signing each Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson to profitable contracts, and mining the Japanese import marketplace for Shota Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki. They’ve cultivated some stable homegrown gamers, however they haven’t had a five-WAR season from a place participant since Javier Báez left city.

In truth, I’ll do you one higher: Aside from Kris Bryant, the final Cubs place participant to submit a season of 6.0 WAR or higher was Alfonso Soriano in 2007. It has, in brief, been a minute since that they had a place participant like Tucker.

As a lot as I contemplate the AL West to be there for the taking, the NL Central is likely to be much more so. The Pirates and Reds are out to persuade the world their homeowners are completely broke. The Cardinals have been so directionless over the previous two seasons I’ve truly began to imagine the Yadier Molina Management Mojo fantasy. And if you wish to speak about a workforce that’s constructed to win precisely 90 video games as cheaply as potential, look no additional than the Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve gained three out of the previous 4 division titles. The Brewers appear to have a membership coverage in opposition to using greater than 1 1/2 good hitters on the similar time, and the remainder of this division is making them appear to be the Nineteen Nineties Atlanta Braves.

The NL Central, in different phrases, has been dying for the Cubs to cease hibernating.

Nicely, they’re actually awake now. And even with Tucker’s estimated $15.8 million arbitration award on the books, the Cubs are nonetheless below $200 million in estimated payroll for 2025, and greater than $30 million below their payroll invoice from final season. To allow them to nonetheless hold including.

And the excellent news retains coming. Whereas I used to be asking Eric for his enter on Smith, he went out of his option to talk his pleasure about Matt Shaw, the Cubs’ first-round decide in 2023 out of the College of Maryland. He referred to as Shaw “among the many twitchiest, most enjoyable to observe gamers within the minors” and “a 5-foot-9 stick of dynamite who performs with all-out effort.” Shaw, a center infielder in Faculty Park, has apparently taken to 3rd base within the professionals and reveals the potential for plus protection there.

With Paredes out of the image, Shaw — who began 2024 in Double-A and went on to make 35 appearances for Triple-A Iowa — is now the presumptive Opening Day starter at third base for the Cubs.

Except they do one thing wild, like signal Bregman.