Everything Is Burger in Texas

Not content material to observe from the sidelines at their residence Winter Conferences, the Texas Rangers dipped their toes within the water on Tuesday night. (An idiom I selected with nice care, contemplating earlier occasions of historic import at this yr’s venue.) Along with a three-year, $75 million deal to deliver veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi again to Arlington, the Rangers acquired Jake Burger from the Marlins in trade for minor league infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas, in addition to pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Any description of a Burger commerce begs out to incorporate the phrase “provides much-needed energy.” I don’t know that the Rangers want extra energy, but it surely’s actually one thing you’ll be able to by no means have an excessive amount of of in your lineup. I’ll say this: Over the previous two seasons, Burger has hit 63 residence runs. So has Corey Seager. Adolis García has hit 64; Marcus Semien, 52. No person else presently on the Rangers has hit greater than 33.

Burger shouldn’t be the type of 30-homer man who produces a bunch of fortunate mortar pictures and wallscrapers. Quite the opposite, this dude hits nukes. Prior to now two seasons, Burger has 69 batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 mph or extra, which is eighth most within the league. He’s considered one of simply 9 hitters who’ve 5 or extra batted balls with an EV of 115 or higher, and considered one of solely eight to have damaged the 118-mph barrier even as soon as.

That type of uncooked energy is accessible solely to a choose few who’ve been judged worthy by their creator, and even then you must hit the weights and eat your spinach. Given a full season’s value of taking part in time, I’d anticipate Burger to go Invoice Mueller and Luke Voit to maneuver into second place all-time in profession residence runs amongst former Missouri State Bears. (Burger is simply 23 homers behind Voit for second, however 310 behind present record-holder Ryan Howard, so the leaderboard will solely shuffle a lot. They make ’em huge and powerful in Starkvegas.)

By way of uncooked energy alone, Burger is genuinely in a category with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Austin Riley.

We all know that Schwarber and Riley are $20 million-a-year guys, and Alonso might be going to make much more when he indicators. Burger turns 29 years outdated subsequent April, however as a result of accidents and the pandemic worn out three seasons of his minor league profession, he’s not even arbitration-eligible but.

Absolutely the Rangers gave up a buttload in an effort to get him.

Ehhh, not likely.

A pleasant perk of this information breaking throughout Winter Conferences is having our supreme potentate of prospects, Eric Longenhagen, subsequent to me within the media room whereas I write. Right here’s a abstract of what Eric needed to say in regards to the return:

Acosta obtained promoted to Double-A in 2024, and he took to this weed-out degree with nice aplomb. He reduce his strikeout charge by greater than a 3rd from 2023, backstopped by a 26% two-strike chase charge. That was solely two factors increased than his already-impressive 24% general chase charge. Eight residence runs in 104 video games won’t be on a regular basis starter energy, however because of a excessive common, aggressive stroll charge, and 23 doubles, Acosta posted a 113 wRC+, which is downright spectacular for a 21-year-old shortstop. He adopted that up with a formidable exhibiting within the Arizona Fall League.

Vargas put up good floor stats — .276/.321/.454 with 14 residence runs in 97 video games — at A-ball, however he missed the Rangers’ prospect listing partially due to his gag-inducing chase charges: 44% general, 59% with two strikes, 42% towards fastballs. The direct quote from Eric was “some of the impatient hitters in all of professional baseball.” When he does make contact, he hits the ball within the air to the pull aspect, which is nice, however his lack of bodily projection (and arm energy) will most likely stop him from sticking at shortstop, and until he finds out in regards to the strike zone, he received’t hit sufficient to stay wherever else.

Mendoza, who turns 21 in January, is a 5-foot-11 lefty who dominated Low-A over 22 appearances (17 begins) earlier than ending the season at Excessive-A. His finest pitch is a bat-missing changeup, which was a weapon after a grip change earlier than the season. He’ll additionally throw a low-90s fastball and a 10-to-4 breaking ball within the low 80s. Mockingly, Mendoza’s quick stature creates the looks of an uphill angle on his fastball that makes the pitch awkward to hit regardless of its pedestrian velocity. If that holds, he might transfer rapidly and hit the majors as a back-end starter pretty rapidly. However Eric additionally warns: “If his fastball velocity sags as his workload grows, then an final result extra like Tommy Milone is probably going.”

It’s greater than the Marlins gave as much as get Burger from the White Sox a yr and a half in the past, however the median final result for these prospects leaves Miami with two complementary huge leaguers and a shortstop who may very well be good if he learns methods to carry out the foundational act of hitting.

So why is Burger much less priceless than the opposite plus-plus uncooked energy guys? It’s a mixture of small-to-medium-sized elements. (Ironic, I suppose.)

Burger shouldn’t be fairly as fly ball-happy as Schwarber, Alonso, or Riley, however by way of hitting the ball within the air to the pull aspect — the shortcut to dinger-filled prosperity — he truly beats Riley fairly handily. However whereas he and Riley are each nominally third basemen, Burger provides up virtually a win of defensive worth per yr to his former division rival.

Then there’s the stroll charge. Burger’s profession strikeout charge is 27.5%, which is excessive, however we’ve typically accepted that strikeouts are the tradeoff for having the ability to hit a ball 115 miles an hour. Sadly, Burger doesn’t possess Schwarber’s preternatural reward for strike zone judgment, and even Alonso’s competence in strike zone judgment.

Even with the strikeouts, Burger hits for a good common: .250 on the button in every of his previous three seasons. (The main league, uh, common in 2024 was .243.) However Alonso walks twice as a lot as Burger; Schwarber walks thrice as a lot. Even with Burger’s penchant for getting hit by pitches, that involves discrepancies of roughly 20 and 50 factors, respectively, in OBP.

With all that mentioned, Burger’s nonetheless a great participant. He is perhaps a poor man’s slugger, however not that poor. Over the previous two seasons, Alonso’s been value 4.9 wins, Schwarber 4.4, and Burger 3.6 in about 80% of the taking part in time. RosterResource has Burger penciled in because the Rangers’ DH, which is smart as a result of Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung have the 2 infield corners locked down. However in case considered one of them will get damage — which is a chance based mostly on the truth that it occurred final season — Burger can step in. Defensively, it shouldn’t be Plan A, however he can stand at third base with a glove with out horrifying young children.

However he’s going to hit arbitration in a yr, so the Marlins figured he was about to get costly, they usually’re too poor even for the poor man’s slugger.

A lot to the Rangers’ profit.