The Cubs are “decided” to commerce one in every of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, experiences Joel Sherman of The New York Publish, with the thought of then redirecting their price financial savings to improve different elements of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Rating, the Cubs have some curiosity in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen in addition to relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.
The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to maneuver an outfielder attributable to having a reasonably crowded combine on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first middle fielder this 12 months, with the potential for enormous worth if his offense takes a step ahead. For the nook spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger may play some first base however Michael Busch took that place and ran with it this 12 months.
There are additionally another choices lurking just under these established huge leaguers. Alexander Canario has simply 45 main league plate appearances however he has all the time hit properly in Triple-A and is now out of choices. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are each on the 40-man roster and consensus prime 100 prospects within the league. Alcántara made a quick MLB debut in 2024 whereas Caissie spent the entire season in Triple-A and performed properly, so each are arguably prepared for some correct huge league taking part in time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s extra guys than the Cubs have spots.
However untangling the knot comes with problems. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are low-cost and controllable, so the the Cubs most likely view them as a part of the long-term resolution, particularly for the reason that Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated at no cost company after 2026, with Bellinger capable of choose out of his deal after 2025. However Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it tough to maneuver them.
Bellinger can be tough to commerce on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an buying membership, the perfect case situation is that he performs properly in 2025 and leaves, however even that wouldn’t be low-cost. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 after which will get to decide on between a $5MM buyout and $25MM wage in 2026. That signifies that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will price $32.5MM. Groups might have some willingness to take an opportunity on Bellinger bouncing again from a middling 2024 marketing campaign, however the draw back is that he doesn’t fairly get again into type and sticks round for 2026. In that situation, the buying staff could be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling participant.
At this level, it’s anybody’s guess which model of Bellinger goes to point out up subsequent 12 months, given his up-and-down profession. He gained an MVP award earlier in his profession however then suffered via just a few depressing seasons, maybe struggling to get wholesome after a notable shoulder surgical procedure. He bounced again with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 dwelling runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above alternative in 130 video games. He performed the identical variety of video games in 2024 however along with his fWAR reduce in half to 2.2. His dwelling run tally dropped to 18, he stole 9 bases and he performed much less time in middle subject as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.
Lining up with one other membership on a commerce might be tough, however it’s nonetheless a risk. At first of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our record of doubtless commerce candidates, although with a spot close to the underside as a mirrored image of the problems. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.
With Suzuki, that is the primary suggestion that he’s accessible, and he will certainly draw curiosity. In his 381 main league video games to date, he has hit 55 dwelling runs and drawn walks at a ten.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line interprets to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting higher over time. His dwelling run complete has gone from 14 to twenty after which 21 in his three seasons, along with his stroll fee climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% after which 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 after which 138.
Suzuki isn’t thought-about a powerful defender, with the superior metrics blended on precisely the place to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Common thus far however Defensive Runs Saved has him at league common general, and with obvious enhancements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season after which +2 in every of the next campaigns to get again to par general.
Regardless, the bat ought to make him interesting and his contract isn’t onerous. He’s going to make $18MM in every of the following two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a complete assure of $36MM. Comparable free brokers are prone to earn excess of that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander might safe a contract of $80MM over 4 years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM vary.
As talked about, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the potential for a commerce, because the Cubs could be restricted of their discussions to no matter golf equipment Suzuki could be prepared to hitch and it’s unknown what his preferences are or could be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and numerous suitors to see what prospects exist for them. If a deal can come collectively, it might open up some taking part in time for his or her prospects whereas liberating up some money for different pursuits.
It doesn’t seem the funds is particularly tight proper now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, properly beneath final 12 months’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Maybe the Cubs are planning to maintain spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation improve similar to Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. However they just lately agreed to a two-year, $29MM cope with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense however far lower than what Burnes or Fried are anticipated to earn.
The membership is understood to be searching for assist behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the higher names accessible in free company. Kelly has usually paired some stable protection with satisfactory offense in his profession. Although his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his profession for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, however, had an extended stretch as a terrific hitter however is coming into free company on a down notice. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and bought out to a roaring begin in 2024 as properly however then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of Could.
MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM assure for Jansen as a part of our High 50 free brokers record, with Kelly within the honorable point out part. Both ought to simply match into Chicago’s funds with or with out an outfield commerce.
Chafin and Yates each align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable offers for relievers, as proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the membership has by no means given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Final 12 months’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the primary time Hoyer went past $5MM for a bullpen signing.
Yates simply wrapped up an amazing season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run common and 35.9% strikeout fee. However since he’s turning 38 years previous in March and has a notable harm historical past, he’ll doubtless be restricted to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection could be new territory for Hoyer, although solely barely. Chafin has been a stable bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His final two journeys to free company have resulted in one-year offers of $6.3MM after which $4.8MM.
