Let’s simply put the headline up immediately. Luis Severino is now an Athletic:
BREAKING: Proper-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in settlement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources inform ESPN. It’s the largest assure within the historical past of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying provide connected, Severino acquired effectively over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
Now that is an fascinating free agent signing. The A’s simply signed the second-biggest deal of the offseason up to now, and the biggest in franchise historical past. They’ve one different participant with a assured contract on the group – and that’s lefty reliever T.J. McFarland, making $1.8 million in 2025. It is a sea change when it comes to how the group operates, so let’s speak about why they did it and the methods it might succeed or fail.
First issues first: The A’s might use some pitching. They have been higher than you’d suppose in 2024 – they gained 19 extra video games than their dispiriting 2023 marketing campaign. Three completely different A’s hitters – Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday – eclipsed three wins above substitute, the primary time that had occurred because the group shipped out Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. All three of these guys are younger and below group management for some time. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof each seem like good on a regular basis gamers. Jacob Wilson is an intriguing high prospect. If it weren’t for the general John Fisher stink of the franchise, this lineup would really feel mighty tantalizing.
That pleasure doesn’t lengthen to the beginning rotation – or not less than it didn’t earlier than at present. JP Sears was the group’s “ace” – however solely by the method of elimination. He threw 180 2/3 innings of 4.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP competence, the type of numbers which may get you demoted to swingman on a playoff group. That was within the cavernous confines of the Oakland Coliseum, not in bandbox Sutter Well being Park, and Sears is a fly ball-oriented pitcher. Issues acquired dicier from there; Sears plus Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, and J.T. Ginn would make for probably the most nameless high 4 within the majors.
Severino may not be a capital-A ace anymore, however he’s a dependable pitcher who simply accomplished a rousing comeback yr with the Mets, pitching a full season for the primary time since 2018 and delivering stable leads to the method. His stuff improved because the yr wore on, although his stamina didn’t fairly observe swimsuit; regardless of a lackluster full-season strikeout charge, he seemed way more like his outdated self by the top of the yr. His 11.1% second-half swinging strike charge is strictly equal to his profession mark, an encouraging signal for a man with loads of expertise however a scary damage historical past.
It’s not arduous to see how that may profit the A’s. He’s their finest pitcher immediately, and he’s even good in a approach that ought to play effectively in a small stadium. There are a number of strikeouts and grounders in his recreation, and the sinker he launched in 2024 appears to be like like an important addition to his arsenal. He’s now sinker/four-seamer/sweeper towards righties and extra balanced towards lefties, utilizing his wonderful changeup as an equalizing software. It’s an exceedingly fashionable pitch combine, and nothing in any respect like his final full season with the Yankees, when he threw greater than 50% four-seamers to everybody.
The dream final result for the A’s is a full season of, say, 3.50-ERA ball. The dream can be that he’ll carry a little bit title recognition to a franchise sorely missing in it. Rooker is superior and a social media darling, however that is the group’s first yr in a brand new metropolis, and Severino could be the one participant on the group {that a} informal baseball fan has heard of (give or take Mason Miller, the rationale I’ve targeted on the rotation as a substitute of the complete pitching employees when speaking about how the A’s want to enhance).
I’m unsure which of those issues extra. The group remains to be a protracted shot to make the playoffs in 2024, however maybe much less of a protracted shot than you may anticipate. That hitting core is not any joke. The potential minor league reinforcements are intriguing. There are a number of holes within the roster – third base and left subject, simply to call a couple of – that might be shortly patched at cheap charges given the latest pattern of bat-first veterans in free company. The massive holdup was at all times going to be pitching, and Severino is a pleasant begin towards fixing it. If the A’s are honest of their want to extend payroll to roughly $100 million, he gained’t be the final starter they signal both.
Concerning the cash: It is a lot greater than each the group and I anticipated Severino to get. I used to be decrease on him even in comparison with consensus, anticipating a three-year, $39 million deal, and the group got here in at three years and $48 million. Pitching has been in excessive demand up to now this yr, with each single deal coming in increased than our estimates, however this one stands out even there. On this case, although, I feel I perceive why: The vacation spot issues.
Does a significant league free agent, one used to the trimmings of massive league life, wish to stay in Sacramento and play in a Triple-A stadium for 81 video games a yr? Gamers are clearly prepared to – the majors are the majors – however in case you’re already generationally rich and in whole management of the place you play, the A’s should be towards the underside of the desirability checklist. Their stadium saga is a nationwide punchline. The fanbase they simply left staged reverse boycotts. Given equivalent contract gives, I can’t think about many gamers would decide the A’s, notably given California’s state tax regime.
The answer: Pay extra money! For my part, that’s what the A’s did right here. Tons of contenders absolutely reached out to Severino. He’s in the identical broad group as Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Michael Wacha (who signed an extension slightly than hit free company): helpful arms who can begin a playoff recreation for you. Offers like that always come all the way down to finest match – until one group gives much more cash than the remainder. In different phrases, the Athletics made Severino a proposal he couldn’t refuse.
In that sense, it could be an overpay, however it’s a mandatory one. Somebody needed to be the primary free agent within the door, and I’m positively not counting McFarland, a 35-year-old journeyman with 0.9 profession WAR. Earlier than signing Severino, the A’s had a projected payroll of $34 million for 2025. Heck, they simply signed the most important contract in franchise historical past, and we nonetheless undertaking them for the bottom payroll within the majors subsequent yr by $13 million. I feel the group would have gotten in bother – precise, risk-of-monetary-penalty bother – with the league if it had so overtly flouted free company.
Along with a pleasant payday, Severino acquired an decide out after the second yr of his deal. That’s helpful to him on a number of fronts. If he continues to develop into his new pitch combine and turns again the clock to 2018 when it comes to outcomes, he’s younger sufficient to signal one other profitable multi-year deal after the 2026 season. If the A’s are an absolute catastrophe and he’s not having enjoyable taking part in there, he can at all times bail after two years slightly than stick it out for all three. These are each helpful escape valves, and player-friendly choices look like a good way for the A’s to entice extra gamers to signal.
I’m not prepared to present a ultimate opinion on this one till I see the remainder of the group’s offseason plans. However provisionally, I like this. The A’s have been higher in 2024 than most individuals realized. They really want to start out getting higher quickly in the event that they wish to keep away from being a punchline all through their Sacramento tenure, and even into their eventual transfer to Las Vegas. They acquired a star with title recognition to placed on high of their rotation and splash on banners throughout two cities, they usually did it in a approach that builds for each 2025 and the longer term. Two thumbs up on this one up to now. The one bummer is that the A’s might have used a deal like this final yr in Oakland, however higher late than by no means.
