Texans vs. Bears, top prospects

There’s only one extra week to the 2022 NFL season, and two groups are nonetheless within the operating for the No. 1 general choose within the 2023 draft. Will or not it’s the Houston Texans (2-13-1) or Chicago Bears (3-13) when the mud settles Sunday? And which prime prospect may every group goal as the primary participant off the board?

After a down yr for quarterback prospects — there was only one chosen within the first two rounds final April — there are at the very least three who may go first off the board this yr. And past the signal-callers, there are a number of elite defenders who can stake a declare to being one of the best general prospect within the class and doubtlessly be the primary participant taken.

We pitched 10 inquiries to NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid, Texans reporter DJ Bien-Aime, Bears reporter Courtney Cronin and analytics author Seth Walder to type by way of the way it may all play out April 27, together with what to know concerning the race for No. 1 and which prospects could possibly be the highest choice. You should definitely try Reid’s new Spherical 1 mock draft to see his projected picks for each groups. Let’s dig in.

Are the Texans or Bears extra more likely to declare the highest choose?

Walder: The Texans. Houston having a barely worse report going into the ultimate week is a hefty benefit, however the race is nearer than you may assume as a result of it performs the Colts. ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) is extra assured within the Texans successful in Week 18 (66.7%) than it has been heading into some other Houston sport this season. Consequently, FPI makes it a slim favourite — 55.7% to Chicago’s 44.3% — to earn the highest choose.

Houston can clinch with both a loss or tie towards Indianapolis or a Chicago win or tie towards Minnesota. Chicago, in the meantime, wants a loss and Texans win to slip into the highest spot. Houston has the tiebreaker within the unlikely occasion that each groups end with the identical successful share.

How’d the Texans find yourself right here? And are they positive Davis Mills just isn’t their man at QB?

Bien-Aime: Houston has struggled throughout the board, with its 4.7 yards per play rating final within the league and 5.7 yards allowed per play sitting at twenty fourth. Its nine-game shedding streak in the course of the season was tied for the second-longest in franchise historical past, behind a 14-game stint in 2013. And the group actually struggled to shut out video games, too. In 5 of the Texans’ 13 losses, they both led or have been tied after the third quarter. That is not going to get it achieved.

2 Associated

And sure, quarterback play hasn’t been the place it must be to win, and it is clear Mills just isn’t the Texans’ long-term reply — particularly since they at one level benched him for Kyle Allen and have leaned extra on Jeff Driskel in a two-QB system down the stretch. The offense has averaged solely 16.1 factors (thirty first), and Mills has thrown 13 interceptions over 14 begins. His 32.9 QBR ranks thirtieth out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks, forward of solely Baker Mayfield.

Mills is a strong NFL backup, however he is not a long-term starter the Texans can construct round. They should discover different choices this spring.

So then it is quarterback or bust for the Texans with their prime choose?

Bien-Aime: Completely. The Texans not having a solution on the place is a significant motive they’re selecting this excessive, and this ought to be a robust class to seek out their man. Over the previous two seasons, Houston ranks thirty first in QBR (33.7) and thirty second in yards per dropback (5.5), and this is a wonderful probability to drastically enhance the outlook of the place. Merely put, the Texans’ rebuild cannot attain its ceiling if there is not any stability on the place.

One thing else to contemplate: Houston additionally wants some juice and vitality. The stadium is half empty throughout video games, and the Texans want a participant to reenergize the fan base. A future star quarterback may try this.

Who’re the quarterbacks that might go No. 1?

Reid: There are three who really have a shot, and every has his personal distinctive talent set.

First, there’s Bryce Younger of Alabama, who declared for the draft after the Crimson Tide gained their bowl sport. Listed at 6-foot and 194 kilos, Younger is smaller than the opposite two, however he has all the different elements essential to turn out to be a high-end passer on the subsequent stage. One of many higher components of his sport is his means to diagnose and assault weak spots in defenses with both his arm or his legs. He has excellent poise and performs the sport with the identical heartbeat regardless of the magnitude of the scenario.

Then there may be Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, a conventional pocket passer who can see it, learn it and execute any throw. When in rhythm, he is a degree guard who can distribute the ball precisely in a well timed method. The 6-foot-3, 218-pound Stroud shows clear footwork and good physique mechanics, however he wants to point out extra as a creator when performs are knocked off schedule.

And eventually, we have now Kentucky passer Will Levis. At 6-foot-3 and 232 kilos, he has the form of body that NFL groups covet, and the Wildcats’ offense gave him a whole lot of expertise with pro-style offensive ideas, together with play-action and expertise from each beneath heart and out of the shotgun. The ball comes off his hand with a ton of velocity, too, as Levis can ship it the place it must go even when his toes aren’t correctly set. However his turnover woes are regarding. He had at the very least one in every of however three video games this season and threw 10 interceptions.

Which ones is one of the best match for Houston?

Reid: Younger. He has been my QB1 because the summer time, and I do not see something altering. Houston remains to be rebuilding this roster with younger expertise, however common supervisor Nick Caserio has some younger constructing blocks in place and two first-round picks in every of the subsequent two drafts.

The Texans clearly lack an identification, and that “face of the franchise”-type participant nonetheless hasn’t surfaced. Younger would instantly change every part, giving the group an immediate jolt of pleasure. He could make all of the throws and has discovered success regardless of the supporting solid. Plus, he already is aware of one among their younger gamers, having related with John Metchie III 96 instances at Alabama final season. Metchie, Houston’s second-round choose final April, missed the season whereas being handled for leukemia, however he’s anticipated to be able to play in 2023.

The Texans even have a second Spherical 1 choose, courtesy of the Browns. What’s their greatest want outdoors of QB?

Bien-Aime: There are a whole lot of weaknesses right here — in spite of everything, Houston has simply two wins — however the inside offensive line might be their greatest want. Their combo of proper guard A.J. Cann, heart Scott Quessenberry and left guard Kenyon Inexperienced has given up 22 sacks.

However that is not a place you may see this early within the draft (at the moment projected to be No. 12, per ESPN’s FPI), so I would count on Houston so as to add a difference-maker at a premium offensive place. Receiver Brandin Cooks leads the group with 593 receiving yards, and nobody has extra TD catches than tight finish Jordan Akins’ three. The Texans have to get their new QB some assist!

OK, and the way concerning the Bears? How did they find yourself right here regardless of Justin Fields’ breakout?

Cronin: Sure, they’ve been higher, however the expertise surrounding Fields has been Chicago’s pitfall. The Bears have the league’s worst passing offense and do not have a single participant with at the very least 500 receiving yards. Defensively, they rank twenty ninth in run protection (5.0 yards allowed per rush), and no group provides up extra factors than their 27.1 per sport common. Their Week 17 loss was their ninth straight, the longest shedding streak in franchise historical past.

This group was not constructed to see success within the type of wins in 2022, and common supervisor Ryan Poles started a roster teardown at midseason by buying and selling linebacker Roquan Smith to Baltimore. The Bears, nonetheless, at the moment are ready so as to add aggressively by way of free company — they’ve north of $110 million in wage cap area in 2023 — and the draft, they usually already checked their greatest and most necessary field by determining Fields is the quarterback to construct round.

Odds to be the No. 1 choose

In contrast to Houston, Chicago would not be taking a look at QB with this choose. What’s the Bears’ prime precedence atop the draft?

Cronin: Constructing round Fields on offense is essential, however the Bears cannot actually try this at No. 1 or No. 2 based mostly on positional worth. Georgia defensive deal with Jalen Carter may as an alternative be an possibility as a result of 3-technique is an important place in Matt Eberflus’ protection. The Bears haven’t proven a capability to strain opposing quarterbacks (22% of opponent dropbacks, thirty first within the NFL) or cease the run. Drafting somebody like Carter begins to unravel each of these points.

Offensive line and vast receiver are additionally amongst this group’s greatest wants. Exterior of wideouts Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and rookie Velus Jones Jr., who can the Bears say for sure is on their roster subsequent yr on the place?

Who’re the non-QB prospects who may go No. 1 if the Bears are selecting there?

Reid: How about Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.? The 6-foot-4, 243-pounder has 27.5 sacks, 54 tackles for loss and 129 pressures over the previous two seasons. Simply contemplate that the Bears’ chief in sacks this season is security Jaquan Brisker (4), and it is apparent this group wants assist in that space. Anderson would give the group a reliable menace off the sting who may flip into a possible franchise centerpiece. His mixture of pass-rush savviness, heavy fingers and explosiveness actually stands out on tape.

Courtney additionally talked about Carter, and Eberflus is on report saying that 3-technique is the “engine that makes every part go” in his protection. At 6-foot-3 and 300 kilos, Carter’s explosiveness and penetrating means could be a welcome addition.

Groups will probably be trying to transfer up the board for a QB. Would a commerce down be in play for Chicago?

Cronin: Completely. Chicago does not have a necessity at quarterback, so it might be in prime place to take one of the best commerce bundle out there and transfer again from No. 1 (or No. 2) whereas nonetheless with the ability to draft a prime defensive participant. The Bears may not wish to transfer down too far, given Carter and Anderson will not be out there for lengthy, however there ought to be choices there.

If Houston falls to No. 2 and has its eyes set on drafting a selected passer, it is likely to be keen pay a steep worth to maneuver to No. 1 to make sure that occurs and block one other group.Groups comparable to Seattle, Indianapolis, Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Carolina may additionally all be within the combine to supply up a giant bundle to get their man.

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