#1 – The statistical similarities
In case you are conversant in my method, you may need observed I really like to speak about ways as a lot as I like to make use of statistics. In basketball, there are a few group statistics classes that I actually like to make use of to raised perceive the sport I watched or to verify an impression I’ve.
The primary class is the 4 elements. These 4 elements had been recognized by Dean Oliver and outlined because the numbers to observe to grasp basketball success. These numbers are:
Taking pictures (40%)
Turnovers (25%)
Rebounding (20%)
Free Throws (15%)
(The quantity in parentheses is the approximate weight Mr. Oliver assigned every issue.)
Final evening, the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors had been virtually the identical, which is uncommon and explains why the sport was so shut and went to additional time.
Each groups shot at above-average effectivity (55.6% eFG%), had been superb at not turning the ball over (beneath 10% turnover fee), had been aggressive on the boards (above 32% offensive rebound fee), and didn’t go to the free-throw line lots (beneath 18 free-throw fee). So, had been the Raptors and the Celtics two twins enjoying the identical recreation plan?
#2 – The statistical variations
Nicely, clearly not. That is why the 4 elements are extra of a statistical class to measure success however not the method itself. To raised perceive the sport plan and the method, the taking pictures frequency may be very useful. As a human, I can discover tendencies, however I can’t depend the variety of photographs in each space for each groups; that’s why I take advantage of stats right here too.
Final evening, whereas the groups seemed related if we centered on the 4 elements, the shot frequency was as completely different because it will get. The Celtics took solely 14% of their makes an attempt on the rim in comparison with 35% for the Raptors. Past the road, we additionally see an enormous hole, with the Raptors solely taking 9 above-the-break threes, whereas the Celtics took 37 makes an attempt from there.
I wished to focus on how typically statistics can inform each side of a narrative and point out how necessary it’s to at all times combine them with different stats, context, and watching the sport itself.
#3 – The Jays taking on in OT
With 51 factors out of 126, the Celtics’ duo scored 40% of the Celtics’ factors towards the Raptors. Nevertheless, in additional time, when the Celtics wanted it, the Jays delivered. The teaching workers ran a couple of performs for them, like this Zoom Motion (off-ball display and a handoff) for Jaylen Brown. The second display from Kornet opens the shot for Jaylen, who loves these clutch moments.
fter Jaylen delivered, Jayson took it upon himself to maintain the Celtics above the Raptors. A robust drive with a left-hand end… stunning. There was concern about his potential to complete on the rim—effectively, this 12 months, he’s making 80% of his rim makes an attempt.
The offensive animation wasn’t excellent late within the recreation, and the Raptors confirmed nice vitality regardless of enjoying on a back-to-back. The offensive creation was a bit shaky, however once more, the Jays are right here to take and make the robust photographs when it issues probably the most.
#4 – The ultimate play wasn’t drawn like this
Final evening, the long-lasting Jayson Tatum shot wasn’t meant to occur… nevertheless it did. How do we all know it wasn’t alleged to occur? Nicely, first, as a result of Jayson Tatum advised it himself to Abby Chin after the sport.
Additionally, you’ll be able to see his face when Jaylen Brown falls down. He seems to be on the clock on the opposite facet of the court docket to guage how a lot time he has left and course of what he can do about it.
The unique play was a Robust Movement motion with staggered screens off-ball for Jaylen Brown, however Davion Mitchell didn’t let that occur.
#5 – Jayson Tatum’s passing retains rising
During the last 5 video games, he has averaged eight assists alongside 29 factors and 9 rebounds on nice effectivity. Whereas his scoring doesn’t shock me a lot, his passing appears to have taken one other leap. Towards the Nets a couple of days in the past, I used to be left speechless by this skip go to Horford within the clutch.
Final evening, he confirmed once more how a lot of a fantastic passer he’s. This season, he was additionally capable of develop a brand new potential: the no-look go. This would possibly sound like a gadget, however there may be extra to it. With these new passing skills, Jayson is ready to manipulate defenses much more and be harmful in a better variety of conditions.
Plus, like yearly, his potential to drive and dish (or drive and kick) has improved. He retains getting higher at mastering timing and studying the protection’s placement.
#6 – Jaylen Brown’s free-throw hunt
Jaylen Brown’s potential to attract fouls has been, for a couple of seasons, a giant speaking level amongst Celtics analysts. Why doesn’t he draw extra fouls? What might he do to regulate and generate extra journeys to the road?
Nicely, final evening, as he has been doing because the begin of the season, Jaylen Brown hunted fouls and was capable of get to the road. This season, his taking pictures foul fee is as much as 16%, the 93rd percentile for a wing. This can be a nice enchancment from his common 11%. His offensive season has been on and off and is perhaps addressed in one other article, however this new weapon in his recreation is nice information for the Celtics.
One other piece of excellent information from the FT line is his effectivity. The pattern measurement remains to be small, however he’s effectively above his final season’s effectivity, with virtually 79% of free throws made.
#7 – Queta as a lob menace
The Celtics’ spacing challenge has been mentioned lots with Kristaps Porziņģis out for months. His three-point shot is commonly talked about, however we are likely to neglect about his lob menace, which creates vertical spacing.
We typically neglect how invaluable vertical spacing is. In case you marvel how essential it may be, take into consideration the Celtics’ offense in 2021-22 with Robert Williams’ vertical spacing within the beginning lineup.
Final season, the Celtics made 104 alley-oops; 32 of them had been for KP. This season, the Celtics can use Queta as a lob menace, and final evening’s recreation was a fantastic illustration of it. Up to now this season, Queta has made 12 of the 20 Celtics’ alley-oops, and three got here final evening. What I really like about it’s that they had been assisted by three completely different Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White.
Whereas the Jayson Tatum alley-oop to Queta got here from a traditional pick-and-roll, the opposite two from Zoom Motion began from completely different areas on the court docket. Jaylen began from the wing:
And Derrick White’s began from the highest:
This highlights how effectively Queta is aware of the best way to rim-run and regulate based mostly on the defensive protection, ball place, and timing of the motion. An incredible addition to the rotation this 12 months and really enjoyable to observe.
#8 – Bench influence within the third
Speaking in regards to the rotation, the bench saved the Celtics near the Raptors within the third quarter. Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, and Jordan Walsh scored 19 of the Celtics’ 30 factors and made the run to verify the Raptors weren’t going wherever. Alongside Jayson Tatum’s playmaking and his 4 assists in 12 minutes, the bench gamers confirmed how nice they’re at ending.
The second unit has a fantastic match with JT, who could make the offense shine with out making any photographs. He was capable of generate the benefit, entice defensive consideration, and ensure PP, Sam, and the remainder of the crew had the open photographs they wanted to maintain the Celtics within the recreation.
#9 – Toronto’s off-ball motion made the Celtics’ protection look dangerous
You is perhaps questioning, if all these takeaways had been optimistic, how come the Celtics virtually misplaced to one of many worst groups within the NBA? First, as a result of even the worst group within the NBA is harmful. The Raptors are well-coached, sensible, and hard, they usually knew the best way to assault the Celtics.
Because the begin of the season, the Celtics have been enjoying poorly defensively in comparison with their requirements. The transition protection has been messy, and the rim safety is nowhere to be discovered with KP out. Nevertheless, how did a group with out a nice offensive initiator punish the Celtics on the rim so usually? Nicely, velocity and off-ball motion.
Within the instance above, the Raptors run a Zoom Motion, which will get 100% of the Celtics’ protection’s consideration. Whereas this occurs, RJ Barrett cuts behind Jayson Tatum, they usually have an open shot on the rim.
One other instance right here was a fantastic play-call from Darko Rajaković that made the Celtics pay for his or her dangerous off-ball defensive rotation. They run a Ghost Flare motion the place Gradey Dick units a faux on-ball display and makes use of Pöltl’s flare display to lose Sam Hauser. Jaylen Brown stays on Pöltl, Queta is means too far to assist, and it results in one other open shot on the rim.
If the Celtics had some hassle successful final evening, it was due to their off-ball protection. Nonetheless, the on-ball protection and pick-and-roll defensive protection weren’t excellent both.
#10 – Choose-and-roll defensive protection
Final evening, the Celtics couldn’t include RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll recreation, however had they even tried? I stay below the impression that they didn’t and had been pleased with the photographs the Raptors took; they only didn’t anticipate them to make these at such a excessive fee.
The Celtics’ pick-and-roll defensive protection was a smooth drop, or a smooth include, as you favor. The on-ball defender was going below the display as a result of RJ Barrett can’t pull up, permitting them to include the drive. Nevertheless, the screener’s defender additionally helped to include the drive.
This drew plenty of defensive consideration to the ball and RJ Barrett, which opened the ground for Pöltl. The Austrian was unstoppable from the brief mid-range final evening, however the Celtics determined to reside with it. They switched it to a bit of bit extra agressive protection later within the recreation, however the short-mid vary was nonetheless open.
You may argue it was dangerous, however the brief mid-range isn’t an environment friendly space on the ground, they usually trusted their course of that Pöltl wouldn’t make sufficient of them to lose. It virtually labored out for the Raptors, however the basketball gods had been on the Celtics’ facet final evening.
