INTRO: The Bucs have a much-needed bye this weekend, and there’s rather a lot to debate with the group needing to simply about win out the remainder of the season so as to qualify for the playoffs. How the season ends will decide Todd Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay, however it looks like offensive coordinator Liam Coen isn’t going anyplace. Get pleasure from this week’s SR’s Fab 5!
FAB 1. Liam Coen’s Future With The Bucs
It seemed bleak for Todd Bowles final 12 months. The top coach’s job was on the road at the moment final 12 months because the Bucs had been 4-6 previous to a loss at Indianapolis in Week 12 to fall to 4-7. To Bowles’ credit score, Tampa Bay received 5 of its final six video games to complete 9-8 and win one other division championship whereas saving Bowles’ job within the course of.
Right here had been are once more, and the expectation for Bowles this 12 months is to point out progress, in line with the Glazers. However what precisely does that does that imply? The Glazers weren’t particular when requested on the NFL annual assembly in March.
Bucs OC Liam Coen and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Progress probably means profitable 10 video games within the common season – after profitable 9 final 12 months – and a minimum of one other playoff berth. The Glazers would favor that include a fourth straight NFC South championship, however the Bucs are presently three video games behind the division-leading Falcons proper now and don’t management their very own future.
So getting in as a 10-game wild card and profitable on the street looks like a should for Bowles to maintain his job. With a really favorable schedule forward popping out of the bye, 10 wins does appear attainable until the Bucs blow it in a recreation they need to win towards the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Cowboys or Saints.
Whereas there’s a curiosity about Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay shifting ahead, what Bucs followers are actually keen on the way forward for offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
It’s throughout social media channels like X and it’s a relentless query and subject within the Pewter Report Podcasts.
What’s going to occur to Coen if Bowles is fired after the 2024 season?
That’s a totally comprehensible query that deserves some consideration, proper?
As a lot as Bucs followers appreciated offensive coordinator Dave Canales final 12 months, they completely love Coen.
As they need to.
Coen’s offense was scoring 30 factors per recreation firstly of the season till he misplaced star huge receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in a 41-31 loss to Baltimore on Monday Evening Soccer. Even with out Evans and Godwin over the following two weeks, Tampa Bay’s offense nonetheless scored 24 factors towards Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis. The Bucs additionally put up 20 versus the 49ers final week.
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Picture by: USA Right this moment
Oh, and Coen additionally has resurrected the Bucs’ long-dead operating recreation partly along with his hiring of offensive line coaches Kevin Carberry and Brian Picucci. No surprise he’s the darling of the Tampa Bay fan base proper now.
I’ve bought some excellent news to share with you. Don’t fear.
Coen isn’t going anyplace.
Both the Bucs flip their season round (once more) and get to the playoffs and Bowles stays with Coen as his play-caller, or they don’t make the progress the Glazers count on and Bowles is fired. Then, Coen probably will get promoted to go coach at Bowles’ expense.
Even when the group makes the playoffs and does nicely and the Bucs initially resolve to maintain Bowles and different groups need to interview Coen for his or her head teaching vacancies, I might see the Glazers step in and take away Bowles and promote Coen.
Let me be clear. I don’t have any inside details about the Glazers’ plans nor have I talked to normal supervisor Jason Licht about this (not that he would share any future plans anyway).
However what I do have is 29 years value of expertise protecting Tampa Bay because the Glazers purchased the group in 1995, which was my first 12 months on the Bucs beat. I’ve seen this film earlier than and I’ve a reasonably good concept about what’s prone to occur.
Former Bucs HC Raheem Morris and Mike Tomlin – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
In January of 2009, the Glazers fired head coach Jon Gruden (and normal supervisor Bruce Allen) 17 days after the tip of the 2008 season. Partially as a result of Bucs possession had misplaced religion in Gruden, but additionally as a result of defensive backs coach Raheem Morris, who was in line to be the group’s defensive coordinator and substitute Monte Kiffin, was getting curiosity across the league.
Denver had interviewed the 33-year previous Morris for the group’s head teaching job and the Glazers had been afraid of dropping what they noticed as the following, younger Mike Tomlin. No less than that’s how possession seen Morris, whose mentor was Tomlin when he was the Bucs’ defensive backs coach in Tampa Bay from 2001-05.
So Gruden was fired and changed by Morris.
In 2015, the Bucs had simply spent the No. 1 general draft choose on quarterback Jameis Winston, who had a promising rookie season alongside offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. When head coach Lovie Smith, who was additionally the defensive play-caller, went 6-10 after a 2-14 season in first 12 months on the helm, the Bucs fired Smith and promoted Koetter to the position of head coach. The Glazers and Licht prioritized continuity on offense with Koetter and Winston persevering with to work collectively.
It looks like these eventualities is enjoying out once more, doesn’t it?
Coen is 39 years previous and is changing into thought to be one of many younger, up-and-coming play-callers across the league, and with good cause. He’s vivid, inventive, adaptive and spent years studying beneath Sean McVay out in Los Angeles.
Bowles is about to show 61 and has presided over one of many worst defenses within the NFL this 12 months. It’s a protection that’s comprised of three first-rounders, three second-rounders, three third-rounders and a few Day 3 hits. There’s loads of expertise that isn’t being coached and developed correctly.
Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Glazers had been scared of dropping the following Tomlin again in 2009, and I’ve a sense they might be scared of dropping the following McVay in Coen the way in which issues or going.
I additionally don’t know if Coen thinks he’s able to be a head coach and even needs to tackle that problem proper now. He could be like Canales and leap on the first alternative, figuring out that these alternatives don’t come round typically. Or Coen could be like Detroit’s Ben Johnson, who’s comfortable being the Lions offensive coordinator in the meanwhile and inching nearer to a Tremendous Bowl look in Detroit.
I’d assume that Coen would need the chance to remain in Tampa Bay and proceed to work with Baker Mayfield, a really proficient offensive line, and an offense that has loads of ability gamers in Evans, Godwin, tight finish Cade Otton and a trio of stud operating backs in Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
And I believe that occurs in 2025 – both as Bowles’ offensive coordinator, the following coach’s offensive coordinator or maybe within the position of head coach changing Bowles if the Bucs fail to make the playoffs.
The Glazers aren’t silly. Liam Coen isn’t getting away from Tampa Bay.
FAB 2. There’s No Purpose – On Paper – The Bucs Ought to End Worse Than 6-1
The Bucs’ probabilities of profitable video games and snapping the group’s four-game profitable streak get considerably higher after the bye week.
On paper.
However soccer video games aren’t received on paper. Simply ask the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons, who got here into Week 10 with a 6-3 report earlier than being upset by the beforehand 2-7 Saints in New Orleans, 20-17.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
One of the best groups don’t all the time win on Sundays – or Mondays or Thursdays – within the NFL. However the 4-6 Bucs will probably be regarded as the higher group and will favored in all however one recreation following the bye week. The 6-3 Chargers will nearly assuredly be the favourite to beat the Bucs at residence in Los Angeles in Week 15, however that’s the one group with a profitable report that Tampa Bay will face.
On paper, the Bucs ought to have a determined benefit over most of their opponents, statistically talking. Tampa Bay is going through a number of woeful offenses down the stretch, which ought to assist contemplating how unhealthy the protection has performed this 12 months. And the Bucs offense shall be going up towards loads of horrible defenses so there ought to be alternatives for Liam Coen’s facet of the ball to place up loads of factors.
Right here’s the place the Bucs presently stand when it comes to league rankings proper now.
Bucs: Whole offense – Eighth (361.5 avg.) / Scoring offense – Fifth (27.9 avg.)Bucs: Whole protection – thirty first (389.3 avg.) / Scoring protection – twenty eighth (26.6 avg.)
Tampa Bay may be very lopsided proper now with the offense the clear power of the group – even with out star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – whereas the protection is actually the weak spot.
Now let’s take a statistical have a look at the defenses that Coen and the Bucs offense will face over the remaining seven video games.
Week 12 Giants: Whole protection – seventeenth (331.3 avg.) / Scoring protection – fifteenth (22.2 avg.)Week 13 Panthers: Whole protection – thirtieth (386.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty second (31 avg.)Week 14 Raiders: Whole protection – fifteenth (325 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirtieth (27.9 avg.)Week 15 Chargers: Whole protection – Sixth (302.1 avg.) / Scoring protection – First (13.1 avg.)Week 16 Cowboys: Whole protection – twenty sixth (362.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty first (28.8 avg.)Week 17 Panthers: Whole protection – thirtieth (386.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty second (31 avg.)Week 18 Saints: Whole protection – twenty eighth (385.6 avg.) / Scoring protection – twenty fourth (24.6 avg.)
5 of the final seven video games of the 2024 season function defenses which are within the backside third of the league, together with the worst three scoring defenses in Las Vegas (thirtieth), Dallas (thirty first) and Carolina (thirty second) twice. This appears to bode fairly nicely for Baker Mayfield and Co.
And the excellent news for Todd Bowles’ facet of the ball is that the Bucs face a number of the worst offenses within the league down the stretch.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: USA Right this moment
Week 12 Giants: Whole offense – 23th (309.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – thirty second (15.6 avg.)Week 13 Panthers: Whole offense – twenty eighth (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty eighth (16.7 avg.)Week 14 Raiders: Whole offense – twenty ninth (280.2 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty fifth (18.7 avg.)Week 15 Chargers: Whole offense – twenty second (314.3 avg.) / Scoring offense – nineteenth (20.7 avg.)Week 16 Cowboys: Whole offense – twenty first (315 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty third (19.7 avg.)Week 17 Panthers: Whole offense – twenty eighth (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty eighth (16.7 avg.)Week 18 Saints: Whole offense – sixteenth (334.8 avg.) / Scoring offense – sixteenth (22.7 avg.)
5 of the remaining video games function offenses which are within the backside third in factors scored this season. Tampa Bay’s end-of-season schedule units up properly for Coen’s offense to place up factors and for Bowles’ protection to get nicely towards some much less formidable offenses.
The Bucs haven’t any enterprise ending any worse than 6-1 with a potential forgivable loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. Now it’s as much as Bowles and Co. to not blow Tampa Bay’s probabilities at one other late-season playoff push by dropping to a group they haven’t any enterprise dropping to.
FAB 3. Todd Bowles’ Curious Choice To Give His Workforce The Week Off
After Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the 49ers, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles determined to offer his gamers further time to relaxation and get well and get away from soccer. That transfer appears relatively curious coming off a four-game dropping streak by which his protection has given up a mean of 31.3 factors per recreation.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
NFL guidelines state that groups should give the gamers 4 consecutive days off through the bye week. That sometimes means Thursday by means of Sunday. Some groups reward gamers with an additional time without work in the event that they win heading into the bye week.
With a lot to repair on protection heading into an important seven-game stretch by which the Bucs in all probability should win six of them to place themselves for the playoffs, it’s sort of loopy that Bowles determined to offer his gamers Wednesday off – approaching the heels of Tuesday, which is the gamers’ time without work.
On no account am I advocating that Bowles ought to’ve had the Bucs conduct a full follow through the bye week. That will be silly given how banged up the group is.
However a full day’s value of classroom work watching movie collectively, or a minimum of a walk-through to tighten up protection and forestall a number of the miscommunication points which have plagued the protection would appear to be a superb use of time. And that might’ve been achieved whereas giving the gamers’ our bodies an opportunity to relaxation.
The Bucs are having a bonus walk-through follow on Monday earlier than the gamers’ time without work on Tuesday, however that’s coming off 5 straight days off. That walk-through follow might’ve occurred on Wednesday after which the Bucs might’ve watched movie collectively on Monday and had a classroom assembly day. Coming off a four-game dropping streak, I’d assume the Bucs might use as a lot follow time as potential.
For a group that’s three video games behind division-leading Atlanta and two video games beneath .500, I don’t assume giving further days off is essentially sensible or warranted. An all-hands-on-deck sense of urgency appeared extra acceptable given the problems on Bowles’ facet of the ball.
FAB 4. Bucs Have Been On The Dropping Finish Of Too Many One-Rating Video games
It’s regular for many NFL video games to return right down to the ultimate drive. That’s been the case in 5 of the Bucs’ 10 video games this 12 months. But Tampa Bay is 1-4 in one-score video games this season.
The group’s lone one-score win was in Week 2 at Detroit, 20-16. Since then, the Bucs have misplaced twice to Atlanta – 36-30 in additional time and 31-26 – along with a 30-24 loss at Kansas Metropolis in additional time and final week’s 23-20 loss at residence to San Francisco. Shut video games like these sometimes come right down to teaching choices and clutch execution.
Todd Bowles’ protection has been on the sphere surrendering the game-winning rating in three of the group’s defeats, whereas Liam Coen’s offense couldn’t rating a go-ahead landing towards Atlanta at residence within the 31-26 loss in Week 8.
One poster on a Bucs Reddit web page got here up with an attention-grabbing graphic. Flipping the outcomes in every of the one-score video games would produce a 7-3 report for Tampa Bay as a substitute of the group’s 4-6 report.
That’s a three-win swing. And it underscores the significance of higher end-of-game clock administration, play calls and execution in crunch time.
FAB 5. Bucs Ought to Emphasize Finish-Of-Sport Conditions – For An Whole Follow
I heard one thing this previous week that I want I might quote or discover a clip on. Apparently former Bucs and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady advised a narrative about New England getting ready for Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts offense years in the past and the way former New England head coach Invoice Belichick had the protection do nothing however pink zone work in follow that week.
Bucs CB Josh Hayes and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
He knew the Patriots protection would have a tough time slowing down Manning and the Colts offense from racking up the yards between the 20s. Belichick advised his protection that they needed to make a stand within the pink zone so as to beat the Colts. That meant not permitting touchdowns and forcing Manning and Indianapolis to should accept area objectives.
I apologize that I can’t recall which season Brady was referring to, however apparently it labored. The Patriots performed nice pink zone protection and beat the Colts that week due to it.
With the Bucs scuffling with a 1-4 mark in end-of-game conditions, maybe Todd Bowles ought to do this unconventional methodology for a minimum of a follow. Merely do an hour-and-a-half of nothing however end-of-game conditions. Your complete follow simulating totally different two-minute conditions on offense and protection.
Doing so would create a better sense of urgency for the Bucs because of this and possibly get the gamers’ consideration that dropping video games on the finish has price Tampa Bay an opportunity at having a profitable report. Emphasizing end-of-game conditions may assist an offense that couldn’t shut out a win at Atlanta, rating a come-from-behind landing versus the Falcons in Tampa Bay and rating a landing relatively than a area aim on the finish towards San Francisco.
And for Bowles’ protection, which has been on the sphere giving up the ultimate rating in additional time losses at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis and on the sphere for the game-winning kick final Sunday, it actually would assist, too. However sadly I sense that Bowles is an excessive amount of of a traditionalist to attempt one thing as radical as this method.
