FanGraphs Power Rankings: Offseason 2025

The new range is at present set to simmer, as groups have accomplished their annual roster housekeeping, however any massive strikes are nonetheless on the horizon. Which means it’s the proper time to see how all 30 groups stack up. The rankings beneath current every workforce as they’re at present constructed, primarily based on our enjoying time estimates. This could give us a fairly good concept of which groups can be able to compete if the season began at present, and which of them nonetheless have work to do to get their 2025 roster so as.

This yr, we revamped our energy rankings utilizing a modified Elo ranking system. For those who’re acquainted with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a sublime resolution that measures groups’ relative energy and may be very reactive to latest efficiency. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo rating for every workforce. Our projections are totally powered by the 2025 Steamer projections proper now; the 2025 ZiPS projections shall be added afterward within the offseason. The delta column within the full rankings beneath exhibits the change in rating from the ultimate common season run of the facility rankings.

…

The Braves endured accidents to their greatest hitter and greatest pitcher early in 2024 and had all types of different issues go mistaken through the season, but they nonetheless managed to sneak into the playoffs. They enter the offseason with the perfect projection in baseball due to a roster that’s nonetheless probably the most proficient within the majors, despite the fact that neither Ronald Acuña Jr. nor Spencer Strider are anticipated to be prepared for Opening Day. With each Max Fried and Charlie Morton departing in free company, Atlanta wants some pitching reinforcements, however the remainder of the inspiration is strong.

Proper behind Atlanta within the projections are the defending World Collection champions. That comes as no shock, since Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are nonetheless round, and Shohei Ohtani ought to be capable to take up that two-way participant enterprise as soon as once more. The Dodgers have loads of sources to fill in no matter holes there are on their roster whereas staying in play for the largest names available on the market this offseason (Juan Soto? Roki Sasaki? Why not each?!). With the midseason addition of Tommy Edman and Betts’ deliberate transfer again to the infield, the workforce can get inventive with the way it fills out the remainder of the workforce. They don’t appear content material with simply two championships during the last 4 years — they’re in dynasty constructing mode.

The Phillies have loads of expertise on their roster, however their veteran core is shortly growing old. Of the eight gamers on the workforce to publish 3 WAR or extra in 2024, solely three of them shall be youthful than 32 subsequent yr and a type of three will flip 30 in the course of subsequent season. The Phils’ window of rivalry isn’t closing but, however they’re most likely a transition interval in a few years. Within the short-term, they’ll enter subsequent yr as one of many higher groups within the Nationwide League. They’ve bought to rebuild their bullpen and presumably determine what to do within the outfield, however they aren’t actually that far off from the Braves and Dodgers above them.

Just like the Phillies, the Astros’ roster seems older than you’d like, however they’re nonetheless proficient sufficient to challenge to be the perfect workforce within the American League. They’ve bought their work lower out for them this offseason, nevertheless. Alex Bregman’s departure is probably the most notable, however they’ve additionally bought to determine the opposite nook infield spot and will most likely use some assist in the outfield too. Their farm system is fairly depleted and their payroll looks as if it’s near maxed out, particularly in the event that they’re severe about re-signing Bregman; the previous is an issue for the Astros’ future, whereas the latter might current some threat to completely filling out their roster.

The final two seasons have offered a tantalizing style of the younger expertise the Orioles have gathered, whereas the final two postseasons have been a disappointing actuality verify for the ballclub. There’s no query this workforce is among the many greatest within the AL, nevertheless it’s clear they want a minimum of one other contributor or two to essentially take the following step ahead. They’ll additionally must navigate the departures of Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander — two massive holes that should be stuffed — whereas scouring the marketplace for that extra difference-maker to get them over the hump.

The success of the Yankees’ offseason will probably hinge on their capacity to re-sign Soto, however that’s not the one factor on their to-do listing. They’ve bought fairly vital holes at first base and second or third (relying on the place Jazz Chisholm Jr. finally ends up enjoying), and they should rebuild a bullpen that noticed a mass exodus through free company earlier this month. Even when they find yourself with Soto anchoring their lineup for the following decade, ignoring all these different holes on the roster might show expensive for the Yankees.

The Diamondbacks missed the playoffs this season (albeit simply barely), however the core of the workforce that made a shock run to the World Collection two years in the past remains to be intact. The Snakes surprisingly led the majors in runs scored, thanks largely to scorching sizzling second halves from Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez, and an MVP-caliber season from Ketel Marte. Arizona desperately wants Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to justify the massive free agent contracts they signed final offseason for the reason that workforce must go looking for a brand new first baseman to exchange a few of that offensive manufacturing (assuming Christian Walker doesn’t return).

Whereas the Twins ended the 2024 season in heartbreaking style, watching three different AL Central groups thrive within the playoffs, there’s motive to be optimistic about subsequent yr. There’s loads of expertise on the roster, with almost each key contributor from this yr carrying over to 2025. The important thing, as all the time, would be the well being of fellows like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Joe Ryan. There’s additionally some massive image questions looming over the franchise; the Pohlad household introduced its intent to promote the workforce and there have been some vital departures within the entrance workplace already this offseason.

The Mariners’ annual quest to discover a hitter who can conquer T-Cell Park continues this offseason. The midseason additions of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles give them two robust nook outfielders on both aspect of Julio Rodríguez in heart, however the infield is their clearest space of want. After all, the M’s nonetheless have probably the greatest beginning rotations in baseball, giving them a strong basis to construct from. The one query is how a lot they’re keen to spend to bolster their offense (trace — it gained’t be a lot) and the way aggressive they’ll be to capitalize on this window of rivalry.

Not like final winter, the Rangers gained’t head into subsequent season questioning when their pitching employees shall be totally wholesome. Jacob deGrom returned to the mound on the finish of final season, and Jon Grey and Tyler Mahle needs to be recovered from their respective maladies in time for spring coaching. As an alternative, the workforce might want to fully rebuild its bullpen after the departures of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and Andrew Chafin, and can most likely want some extra beginning pitching depth besides.

The Royals already did all of the heavy lifting to solidify their rotation, re-signing Michael Wacha to a three-year deal a couple of weeks in the past. Now they’ll flip their consideration to determining how you can construct a lineup round Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. None of their inside choices are all that inspiring, so that they’ll must look outdoors the group for upgrades. They already confirmed a stunning willingness to spend to enhance their rotation. Now it’s time to handle the opposite aspect of the roster.

The previous few years, A.J. Preller has acted aggressively to lift the ceiling of a particularly top-heavy roster. There are holes in left area and within the beginning rotation, however numerous the work San Diego might want to do entails build up some organizational depth so the roster isn’t left with a black gap ought to any of its stars find yourself injured subsequent yr. That gained’t be as flashy as buying and selling for Soto or Dylan Stop, nevertheless it’s mandatory work to make sure that the ups and downs of the common season aren’t as dramatic.

When Cody Bellinger opted into his contract for 2025, the Cubs had certainly one of their massive offseason questions answered. His return means the lineup is fairly locked in for subsequent yr, even when it was pretty common in 2024 (twelfth by runs scored, 14th by wRC+). As an alternative of addressing the offense, Chicago might want to enhance their bullpen and presumably discover some beginning pitching depth. With the NL Central vast open for the taking, a couple of key additions might push the Cubs’ window of rivalry vast open.

The Brewers ended up operating away with the NL Central this yr, however the projections see a large open division in 2025. Jackson Chourio established himself as a star through the second half of 2024, and Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff needs to be wholesome to begin the yr in 2025. Nonetheless, the lack of Willy Adames is a reasonably large deal with none straightforward solutions, and the again finish of Milwaukee’s beginning rotation wants numerous assist.

After which there are the Cardinals. The projections see sufficient expertise on their roster to challenge them alongside the Cubs and Brewers, however the workforce may be embarking on a short-term reset relatively than restocking for one more run on the division title in 2025. Whereas that’s most likely an excellent long-term technique, it means this projection would possibly find yourself being their excessive water mark this offseason as they start to shed the high-priced veterans on their roster.

This yr was a bizarre bridge season for the Rays, as they moved from one core to the following after buying and selling away Arozarena and Isaac Paredes on the commerce deadline. They’re hoping that the following era of kids, led by Junior Caminero, is able to contribute on the main league stage subsequent yr. They gained’t have to fret about their pitching, since Shane McClanahan ought to return from his Tommy John surgical procedure early subsequent yr and Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz shall be one other yr faraway from their respective accidents. After all, the massive query is the place they’re going to play in 2025 and past after Tropicana Subject took a beating throughout Hurricane Milton.

The Blue Jays resisted buying and selling away Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette on the commerce deadline. Now comes the laborious half, as they attempt to rework the remainder of the roster to make sure they’re not losing the ultimate years of workforce management of these two younger superstars. It’ll be a tall activity, as a result of whereas the workforce may be proficient sufficient to play its method into rivalry, the beginning rotation isn’t the energy it as soon as was, there’s completely nobody within the bullpen, and the lineup isn’t actually all that settled outdoors Guerrero, Bichette, and a handful of others. If issues go poorly early subsequent season, Toronto could possibly be tearing every little thing down a yr too late.

The Tigers could possibly be probably the most fascinating groups to observe this winter. Their shock playoff run got here nicely forward of schedule, nevertheless it proved there’s a reputable core to construct round in Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows. Nonetheless, they’ll’t proceed to depend on Skubal as their solely true beginning pitcher, and their offense was fairly inconsistent outdoors of the three guys talked about above. They’ll should be aggressive to find methods to improve the roster in the event that they need to proceed their ahead momentum. They’ve additionally bought to determine what to do with Javier Báez and Spencer Torkelson; the previous remains to be owed $73 million over the following three years and the latter nonetheless hasn’t discovered a lot consistency on the main league stage.

The previous couple of offseasons, the Giants have been linked to a few of the greatest free brokers available on the market with out really touchdown any of them. They’re rumored to be in on the Soto sweepstakes this winter, however it could be a shock if Soto ended up in black and orange subsequent yr. As an alternative of 1 massive splash, new president of baseball operations Buster Posey may have his work lower out for him, because the roster has quite a few holes throughout the infield and within the beginning rotation.

The Mets have been probably the most enjoyable groups to comply with this yr given their shock run to the playoffs, however they’re caught within the awkward place of nonetheless being in the course of a transition, with some surprising success fueling excessive expectations. That they had 14 free brokers depart from their roster, which is an enormous motive why their projection is so low even after all of the success they loved through the second half of 2024. The workforce might want to rebuild almost its whole beginning rotation whereas additionally discovering a substitute for Pete Alonso.

Like so lots of the different groups on this tier, there’s expertise to be discovered on the Crimson Sox. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran can carry the lineup, and the beginning rotation took an enormous step ahead this yr (even when it ran out of steam by the tip of the season). The large drawback is that all of it provides as much as a merely common general projection due to all of the query marks elsewhere on the roster. Will Trevor Story ever be the man Boston paid $140 million for? What might be anticipated from Lucas Giolito after his elbow harm? There’s a basis right here, nevertheless it’s constructed on fairly shaky floor and will use numerous shoring up.

The Guardians emerged because the victors in a surprisingly aggressive AL Central division race, although they’ve their work lower out for them in the event that they need to defend that title. Usually an space of energy, their rotation seems like it’s going to want numerous assist after shedding Shane Bieber to an elbow harm after which free company. And with David Fry’s elbow harm maintaining him sidelined for the early a part of subsequent season, Cleveland is in much more determined want of some assist for the offense. The Guards might particularly use an addition that comes within the type of an influence menace.

With Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller anchoring their rotation, the Pirates have already got a powerful assortment of younger pitchers to construct round. Now they should flip their consideration to their lineup. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are good in their very own proper, however Pittsburgh’s offense desperately wants an infusion of top-end expertise. Whether or not that is available in free company (unlikely) or by buying and selling for a bat or two (extra probably), the standard of their beginning pitching screams for large, aggressive strikes to take benefit whereas the window is open.

There have been loads of optimistic indicators on the sector because the Athletics exited Oakland. Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Shea Langeliers type a potent center of the order, and Mason Miller was completely dominant out of the bullpen. Nonetheless, their transfer to Sacramento overshadows all that progress on the sector, and there’s nonetheless loads of work to do to shore up the beginning rotation earlier than the A’s could possibly be thought of true contenders. And that work would possibly simply have to attend till they get their stadium scenario in Las Vegas discovered.

The excellent news in Miami is that Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, and Braxton Garrett ought to all be wholesome for almost all of subsequent season. The dangerous information is that the Marlins don’t actually have a lineup able to supporting all of the expertise within the beginning rotation. Xavier Edwards’ second-half breakout and the promise proven by Connor Norby have been each brilliant spots, however the Fish have loads of holes up and down their lineup they’ll must fill. Alcantara and Luzardo each have two extra years of workforce management left, which ought to encourage slightly urgency to determine issues out earlier than the Marlins should reset their roster once more.

The Angels have been probably the most aggressive groups early within the offseason, buying and selling for Jorge Soler and signing Kyle Hendricks and Travis d’Arnaud. Whereas these strikes don’t transfer the needle all that a lot, they do present this roster with some a lot wanted depth. These are the sorts of strikes which might be essential for contenders to make as they solidify their rosters, however the Angels are removed from really contending. Positive, they nonetheless have Mike Trout, however he hasn’t performed greater than 140 video games in a season since 2018. This roster will go so far as Trout can carry it and that every one depends upon his well being.

There’s loads of younger expertise in Cincinnati, however that’s been true for a couple of years now and the Reds nonetheless haven’t discovered a option to flip the nook; maybe the addition of recent supervisor Terry Francona will assist this roster coalesce right into a winner. As a result of this workforce is so loaded with inside choices who moved by means of the farm system, it’ll be a tough promote to displace any of them with exterior additions. Any enchancment in 2025 will probably want to return within the type of breakouts and bounce backs from their children.

It appears like Washington is able to flip the web page on rebuilding and begin trying ahead to a aggressive window opening up within the close to future. With James Wooden, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams, and Luis García Jr. forming the following nice core for the Nationals, it may be time to begin fascinated about including to the roster to take an enormous step ahead. Their beginning rotation was significantly better than anticipated and there are a couple of extra high prospects on the verge of creating their debuts within the massive leagues subsequent yr.

Shockingly, the White Sox aren’t projected to have the worst workforce in baseball. And after setting all types of data for futility final yr, issues couldn’t presumably worsen subsequent yr, proper? Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. are each nonetheless on the South Aspect for now, nevertheless it’s greater than probably they’ll be packing their baggage by the following commerce deadline. That signifies that 2025 must be all about starting to determine the kids who would possibly make up the following nice White Sox workforce. The rebuilding course of is simply starting in Chicago, and it’s going to take some time to show the nook.

At the very least the White Sox have a path, even when it’s to be headed into the baseball wilderness for some time. The Rockies have been caught in that wilderness for years and have proven little signal of having the ability emerge from it. Positive, the breakouts of Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are small steps ahead, however that’s basically it so far as excessive factors are involved. The pitching employees is a multitude, and the lineup simply isn’t adequate despite the fact that they take pleasure in the advantage of enjoying in Coors Subject for half their video games. There are a couple of massive prospects on the horizon, however they’re too far off to have an enormous impact on the workforce’s fortunes in 2025.