Since Josh Naylor didn’t signal an extension with the Guardians throughout his pre-arbitration years, it has at all times appeared like there was a ticking clock on the primary baseman’s time in Cleveland. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stick with the franchise, a take a look at Cleveland’s extension historical past during the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the easy fact that the Guards nearly by no means signal gamers to long-term extensions for vital salaries as soon as they get inside a 12 months or two of free company.
Naylor is now coming into his remaining season of staff management, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12M wage in his final journey by means of the arbitration course of. It’s a pleasant elevate from his $6.5M wage in 2024, and since arbitration calculations are likely to closely weigh conventional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely money in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.
A peek on the extra superior metrics is a bit more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was stable however not fairly elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season noticed Naylor get pleasure from a .326 BABIP, whereas the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s manufacturing additionally got here within the first three months of the season, and it might be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor carrying down because the 12 months progressed. On the plus aspect, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast classes, and he was a much more affected person hitter than in years previous, with a 9.2% stroll price that can be a profession greatest.
All this being mentioned, even “solely” a repeat of his 2024 season ought to put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a profitable free-agent deal when he reaches the open market subsequent winter. It additionally very doubtless places him out of Cleveland’s worth vary over the long run — and fairly presumably even for the 2025 marketing campaign.
The Guards had some elevated attendance at Progressive Discipline throughout the common season they usually received a pleasant income enhance from internet hosting six playoff video games, but the group may also expertise some degree of drop-off of their broadcasting {dollars}. MLB itself will now be dealing with the native distribution of Guardians video games after the Diamond Sports activities Group backed out of its unique contracts with the Guards and 10 different groups. Meaning the Guardians will obtain some however not the entire broadcast income they’d’ve obtained below the phrases of their earlier deal.
In a world the place the Guardians have been nonetheless getting all of that TV cash, odds are Naylor would nonetheless have been traded, simply because that’s how the staff has historically finished enterprise. And naturally, it isn’t an absolute assure that the primary baseman will likely be on the transfer this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti may not discover a suggestion to his liking, or possession may approve a barely larger payroll to make one other run with what appears like a profitable core. Naylor may then be shopped on the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in competition or stored by means of his final remaining season of staff management after which very doubtless let go in free company. That latter state of affairs would at the very least put Cleveland in place to land a draft choose as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying supply and signed elsewhere.
Promoting excessive on Naylor this winter would possibly land greater than only a draft choose, nonetheless. Naylor’s title has already surfaced in previous commerce rumors, because the Cubs, Mariners and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor final winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch in all probability takes them out of the working, but Seattle and Pittsburgh are each nonetheless concentrating on first base assist and offensive assist in normal.
Whereas neither the M’s or Pirates are anticipated to be massive spenders in free company regardless, Naylor stands out as a serious backup plan for any staff that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the 2 largest first basemen on the free-agent market. For one 12 months and round $12M, Naylor isn’t an enormous splurge even for smaller-market golf equipment, or golf equipment just like the Guardians who’re dealing with broadcasting issues. Broadly taking a look at groups who’ve a transparent or potential want at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants or Padres (Naylor’s former staff) may be part of the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals may additionally technically match on this record, however Cleveland is much less prone to transfer Naylor to a division rival.
Because the Guardians have a number of uncertainty of their beginning rotation subsequent 12 months, groups which have pitching to supply might need a leg up in commerce talks. The Guards’ standard tactic of pursuing at the very least one prospect and at the very least one quick MLB-ready participant in trades might be restricted by the truth that Naylor is managed for one solely season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets throughout the 2020-21 offseason.
There’s additionally the matter of how the Guardians will substitute Naylor of their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a possible lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 main league PA this season. The Guards is perhaps assured sufficient in Manzardo to let him take over first base within the occasion that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran might be acquired to supply depth if Manzardo isn’t fairly prepared for an everyday position. It may simply be argued {that a} Guardians staff even with Naylor again continues to be in want of extra offense, so buying and selling Naylor may put Cleveland in want of discovering a fair greater bat for the outfield.
The trade-and-replace routine has grow to be acquainted through the years in Cleveland, and the fan base would possibly grit their tooth on the thought of dealing away one other distinguished participant for payroll-related causes. Transferring Naylor particularly has a novel layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably stay on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking apart the enjoyable thought of a household connection on the coronary heart of the lineup.
Nonetheless, the Guardians’ tactic of buying and selling gamers slightly than simply letting them stroll in free company has allowed the membership to repeatedly reload each the farm system and the lively roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless monitor report together with his offers, but his excessive batting common on the commerce market has helped the Guards publish profitable data in 10 of the final 12 seasons, with seven postseason journeys in that span. Discovering the appropriate match on a Naylor commerce this winter would possibly lead to Cleveland getting again to the playoffs subsequent fall.
