It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Level Conversion post-game column, which options two statements, two questions and two predictions primarily based on the newest Bucs sport. Tampa Bay misplaced an extra time heartbreaker in primetime in Atlanta, 36-30.
The Bucs protection couldn’t cease Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense all night time, and Tampa Bay’s offense sputtered within the second half and squandered a lead within the ultimate moments by failing to expire the clock. Now the workforce is 3-2 heading into subsequent week’s sport at New Orleans.
2 BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. Right here’s Why The Bucs Will Nonetheless Win The NFC South
That was a brutal loss on Thursday Night time Soccer – not only for the Bucs, but additionally for his or her followers.
The Tampa Bay gamers have been steamed after blowing a fourth quarter lead – on each side of the ball – and Bucs followers have been offended and distraught over dropping to a division rival that was picked by nationwide pundits and the sportsbooks in Las Vegas to win the NFC South.
Not so quick.
Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge – Photograph by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
The Falcons didn’t with the division on Thursday night time. There’s nonetheless loads of soccer to be performed this season for the 3-2 Bucs.
The NFC South continues to be up for grabs, and in reality, the Bucs ought to nonetheless be the favorites to win it in my thoughts. Right here’s why.
Tampa Bay had a number of alternatives to maneuver to 4-1 with a win in Atlanta earlier than dropping 36-30 in extra time on a 46-yard catch-and-run by Falcons receiver KhaDarel Hodge. That put Kirk Cousins over 500 yards (509 yards) and made him a shoo-in for NFC Offensive Participant of the Week together with his fourth landing of the sport.
The Falcons didn’t beat the Bucs. The Bucs beat the Bucs on the finish by not making the performs crucial to hold on to a fourth quarter lead.
Thursday night time’s sport was paying homage to final yr’s horrific 39-37 loss at Houston the place rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud carved up Bowles’ coverages for 470 yards, which set an NFL rookie file, and 5 touchdowns. And what occurred on the finish of the season?
The Bucs nonetheless received the NFC South in Week 18 – even rebounding from a dreadful 4-7 file on the finish of the November.
Oh, the Falcons are higher this yr, proper? Certain, they’ll seemingly end higher than the 7-10 file they’ve posted in every of the final three years. However will they get to 10 wins?
Each Atlanta and Tampa Bay have robust schedules forward, however the Falcons nonetheless need to play the undefeated Vikings, the Commanders, Ravens, Cowboys, plus two extra video games towards the Saints and Bucs. Can they win all of these video games and keep away from getting tripped up by the likes of the Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins on the highway?
Bucs WR Sterling Shepard – Photograph by: USA In the present day
The important thing for Tampa Bay successful the division is to separate with the Falcons, which implies successful the creamsicle sport at house in just a few weeks, sweeping the Panthers once more and at the least splitting the 2 video games with the Saints – beginning subsequent week in New Orleans. The Bucs did simply that final yr and have been in a position to win the division with a 9-8 file. The guess right here is that the NFC South champion might want to attain 10 wins this season – and it ought to be Tampa Bay, which already has three NFC wins within the bag.
Aside from heart Drew Dalman and center linebacker Troy Andersen, the Falcons have been almost at full energy on Thursday night time. The Bucs? Not a lot.
Tampa Bay was with out its greatest defender in Antoine Winfield Jr., its greatest pass-rushing defensive sort out in Calijah Kancey, its beginning proper sort out in Luke Goedeke, its rising inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis (who is much better in protection than Ok.J. Britt is), in addition to large receivers No. 3 and No. 4 on the depth chart in Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. All however Dennis ought to return sooner slightly than later, so assistance is on the best way.
On a workforce that isn’t tackling effectively proper now, Winfield Jr. is definitely the most effective tackler, and his eventual return will definitely be welcomed. Not solely will Winfield present Bowles with a positive tackler who will stop massive third-down conversions and touchdowns, but additionally a key chess piece that may be moved across the subject to create sacks, interceptions and drive fumbles – all issues the Bucs might use proper now on protection. Bowles wants a difference-maker, and that’s precisely what Winfield is when wholesome.
Josh Queipo supplied some glorious evaluation in a Pewter Report column titled “Bucs Have A BIG Center Of The Discipline Downside On Protection” that’s value studying and heading in the right direction. Tampa Bay’s comfortable zone protection was exploited in the midst of the sector repeatedly by Cousins on Thursday night time. Bowles should get this sorted out, because the NFL is a copycat league and Saints quarterback Derek Carr, the Bucs’ subsequent opponent, is taking notes for positive.
The guess right here is that Tampa Bay deploys a dime defensive look with six defensive backs, together with three safeties with both Christian Izien or Kaevon Merriweather platooning with inside linebacker Ok.J. Britt, who’s an actual legal responsibility in go protection. Or perhaps it’s seeing if fellow linebacker J.J. Russell might be an improve in protection over Britt. I belief that Bowles will clear up this puzzle, but it surely was extremely onerous to take action on a really brief week this time round.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA In the present day
Whereas everybody factors to the protection because the offender for Thursday’s loss in Atlanta, the offense was simply as unhealthy within the second half, and performed a contributing function within the defeat. After scoring 24 factors by halftime, the Bucs managed simply two subject objectives within the second half. Baker Mayfield had 131 yards and three touchdowns within the first half, however had simply 49 passing yards within the second. Mike Evans, who had 4 catches for 49 yards and a pair of scores within the first half, was held to only one reception for 13 yards within the second half.
Nonetheless, we’ve seen this Liam Coen offense generate 30 factors or extra in three out of 5 video games to begin the season, and that’s encouraging for a rookie offensive coordinator. He’s confirmed to be a greater play-caller than Dave Canales was at this juncture final yr, and Coen continues to be studying on the job. He’ll get higher because the season progresses.
Coen was taught a painful lesson about the right way to shut out a sport after the offense failed to choose up a primary down or transfer into subject objective place on the ultimate drive after Lavonte David’s interception that ought to’ve sealed the win. I get the concept to attempt to run the ball or use display passes to attempt to decide up the primary all the way down to make the Falcons burn their timeouts. It’s sound in idea.
However the Bucs paid $100 million to Mayfield this offseason, and Coen’s personal mantra is “gamers over performs.” Mayfield, Evans and Chris Godwin are higher gamers than Rachaad White or Bucky Irving. And sure, the missed facemask name on Irving was big.
Merely put, Mayfield must have the ball in his arms to win out video games, particularly when the Falcons switched to a 6-1 entrance to attempt to cease the working sport on that ultimate drive. You don’t see Andy Reid taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ arms on the ultimate drive. Coen can’t do the identical factor with Mayfield transferring ahead.
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photograph by: USA In the present day
Bucs left sort out Tristan Wirfs was justifiably ticked off that the offense couldn’t run the clock out and win the sport with 1:44 remaining.
“It was a back-and-forth sport,” Wirfs mentioned. “We had each alternative to shut it out and we didn’t. It sucks. We’ve acquired three days to let it steep. It ought to damage. It ought to suck. We’ll see them in a pair weeks. We’ve acquired the Saints subsequent week after which they’re going to Tampa couple weeks after that. You realize you’ve acquired to maneuver on.
“It sucks, you understand? I’m pissed. I’m not blissful about it as a result of it was proper there. They gave it to us. They mentioned – you understand they threw the Lavonte decide – they mentioned, ‘Right here you go. You guys win.’ We must always have finished it.”
The Bucs’ go rush is displaying indicators of life, as is Tampa Bay’s working sport. And this workforce has the teaching workers that is aware of the right way to win the NFC South together with essentially the most proficient roster within the division. If this Bucs workforce can get wholesome – and most significantly, keep wholesome – and end no worse than 4-2 within the division like they did final yr – there is no such thing as a purpose why Tampa Bay can’t efficiently defend one other division title.
STATEMENT 2. Tough Night time For Bucs Rookies
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photograph by: USA In the present day
It was the primary primetime sport for Tampa Bay’s rookie class and it turned out to be tough night time in Atlanta. Middle Graham Barton had his worst sport of the yr, giving up a crucial sack on third down within the pink zone within the fourth quarter that led to a Bucs subject objective. The primary-round decide additionally had a crucial holding name on second down on Tampa Bay’s ultimate drive that moved the workforce out of subject objective vary and finally led to a punt. Barton was the lowest-graded Bucs participant on offense (39.5), in response to PFF.
Operating again Bucky Irving, the workforce’s fourth-round decide, had just a few good runs, but additionally had a pricey fumble on the Atlanta 32 late within the fourth quarter that value the Bucs an opportunity at extra factors. Irving had 9 carries for 44 yards (4.9 avg.), together with a 16-yarder on his first carry, along with two catches for 12 yards, however the fumble proved to be pricey.
Rookie nickelback Tykee Smith additionally had his worst sport of his younger profession, permitting two touchdowns. It wasn’t all unhealthy for Smith, who led the Bucs in tackles with 11, however taking part in some unhealthy method on just a few scoring performs proved to be pricey.
“He had a bunch of tackles,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned. “For the primary time he had two or three errors since he’s been right here. You overlook he’s a rookie. He had two or three issues he might do higher, however he’s a troublesome participant for us. He’s a wise participant, we depend on him to do loads – he does loads.
“He’s extra like an outdoor [linebacker] once they run the ball as a result of he can tackle guards and tackles in addition to tight ends so he’s very productive for us and we simply have to wash up just a few issues.”
2 PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1. Why Did Todd Bowles’ Protection Look So Unhealthy In Atlanta?
Bucs ILBs Ok.J. Britt and Lavonte David – Photograph by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
There have been a number of causes. Permitting any quarterback to go for 500 yards and 4 touchdowns is horrible, and it shouldn’t come as a shock that it was Kirk Cousins who carved up the Bucs protection, main the Falcons to a “You want that?!” come-from-behind win as he did with the Redskins again in Washington towards Lovie Smith’s protection in 2015.
Todd Bowles might’ve used the assistance of inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and All-Professional free security Antoine Winfield Jr. on Thursday night time in Atlanta. Dennis is probably going finished for the yr with a shoulder harm, whereas Winfield is getting nearer to coming back from his foot harm. Inside linebackers Ok.J. Britt and ageing linebacker Lavonte David have been repeatedly focused over the center as a result of neither has supreme pace to really cowl some routes the best way they must be coated.
“We wish to have extra pace on the sector at sure occasions,” Bowles mentioned. “Ok.J is an excellent zone participant however at occasions we wish to have some pace guys on the sector and the communication must be higher, particularly with the safeties. After we misplaced Jordan [Whitehead], we misplaced a number of the communication side of it after which we simply missed some drops and missed some tackles.”
Bowles was being beneficiant about Britt, who was Professional Soccer Focus’ worst-graded Bucs defender with a 38.3 grade, together with a 46.8 protection grade.
Throw in the truth that the Bucs simply performed in a brutally scorching and humid sport at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday whereas the Falcons beat the Saints in an air con dome and that was yet one more issue as to why Tampa Bay’s protection light within the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay’s protection got here into the sport drained on a brief week, and that fatigue confirmed with sloppy tackling and protection that simply wasn’t tight sufficient.
Bucs S Kaevon Merriweather and CB Jamel Dean and Falcons WR Darnell Mooney – Photograph by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Making issues worse was the truth that Bowles’ unit solely pressured one turnover – an interception by David – and just one punt. In any other case, the protection was on the sector for a staggering 81 performs – 30 greater than Tampa Bay’s offense had – together with the ultimate 13 snaps of the sport in each the fourth quarter and extra time. When the Falcons received the toss in extra time and elected to obtain, the Bucs protection was out of fuel and it confirmed, sadly.
Due to the harm to Winfield, Bowles couldn’t go to a dime bundle that may’ve taken Britt off the sector and changed him with an additional security.
“When [Winfield] comes again, we’ve these kinds of packages in, however with the accidents, we will’t afford to make use of these proper now,” Bowles mentioned.
Tampa Bay’s protection had 11 QB hits and 4 sacks, so the stress on Cousins was sufficient. It was principally free protection that doomed the Bucs protection and allowed Cousins to thrive.
QUESTION 2. Are We Seeing The Emergence Of Logan Corridor – The Cross Rusher?
Bucs DT Logan Corridor and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photograph by: USA In the present day
The Bucs definitely hope so. Tampa Bay has waited three years for Logan Corridor to play in addition to he did on Thursday night time when he formally recorded 5 quarterback hits and a career-high two sacks. This is probably not a fluke both, as Corridor recorded his first sack of the season final week towards the Eagles and now leads the workforce with three in 5 video games.
No person had Corridor main Tampa Bay on their bingo playing cards at this juncture, but it surely’s actual. Corridor has appeared like an absolute bully in the midst of the Bucs protection over the past two video games.
But is it sustainable? Or will Corridor return to being the invisible man he’s been too typically since being the workforce’s first decide within the 2022 NFL Draft?
“Yeah, it’s sustainable,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned of Corridor’s latest play. “He’s approaching. We all the time knew he was athlete, but it surely took time to get his go rush issues down. He does quite a lot of speaking to Vita [Vea], he did quite a lot of speaking to [Calijah] Kancey on the sideline, of the right way to attempt to assault these guys and what he needs to do with them – much less swim method and extra arms to energy after which he’s utilizing his strikes on the finish and his athleticism.
“I feel it’s sustainable. I feel he’s approaching each week, and he sees it now, in order that’s giving him extra confidence and we simply look ahead to him getting higher.”
After not recording a sack from the inside defensive position over the primary three video games, between Corridor’s three sacks and Vita Vea’s two, Tampa Bay is now getting extra stress and extra manufacturing inside. Simply wait till Calijah Kancey comes again, too.
2 BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Will get A lot-Wanted Division Win In New Orleans
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photograph by: USA In the present day
The Buccaneers may have 10 days earlier than their subsequent sport at New Orleans to relaxation, get better, rehab and heal up earlier than taking part in a “gotta have it” sport towards the Saints. Tampa Bay can’t afford to lose two in a row, drop to .500 and fall to 0-2 within the NFC South ought to the workforce lose in NOLA.
The two-2 Saints play the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis on Monday Night time Soccer and will endure their third straight defeat of the yr. Arrowhead is a troublesome place to play, particularly in primetime when Patrick Mahomes’ magic appears to be at its greatest. And needless to say the Chiefs are actually a defensive workforce this yr and the Saints have struggled to attain factors the final two video games after placing up over 40 factors within the first two victories of the season.
Now it’s the Saints’ flip to need to play on a brief week. We’ll see if Todd Bowles and Liam Coen can use the additional time to prep for New Orleans and get Tampa Bay again on observe. I nonetheless imagine on this Bucs workforce and it is best to, too. The unthinkable loss to Denver was far worse to soak up and course of than Thursday’s night time loss at Atlanta.
PREDICTION 2. Harm Bug Will Maintain Biting The Bucs – All Season Lengthy
Bucs OLB Markees Watts – Photograph by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Some years the harm bug simply doesn’t chunk. It’s no coincidence that the Bucs’ two Tremendous Bowl seasons got here in years the place the workforce was as wholesome as ever in 2002 and 2020. Final yr was comparatively injury-free in Tampa Bay as effectively, exterior of Matt Feiler’s knee harm, Calijah Kancey’s calf (the opposite one) and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean being banged up.
This yr, it’s a unique story. And each sport it’s a unique harm – or two – to a unique Buccaneer – or two. A number of key Bucs have missed a number of video games already and some extra acquired banged up within the Thursday loss at Atlanta. Sturdy security Jordan Whitehead and out of doors linebackers Markees Watts and Yaya Diaby suffered accidents – though Diaby returned.
This simply doesn’t seem to be the yr the place the soccer gods are smiling on Tampa Bay. I don’t suppose the harm bug goes to be repelled anytime quickly. That doesn’t imply that the Bucs can’t win 10 video games, make the playoffs and even win the division. However simply as we noticed in 2021, the yr the workforce received a franchise-best 13 video games, premature accidents to key gamers can derail a Tremendous Bowl run.
That was the case when Professional Bowl proper sort out Tristan Wirfs and 1,000-yard large receiver Chris Godwin missed the NFC Divisional playoff sport versus the Rams. In the long run, this yr’s injury-riddled Bucs received’t make it to the Tremendous Bowl, sadly.
