UFC 307’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Pereira vs. Rountree

UFC 307 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) from inside Delta Middle in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah. The pay-per-view (PPV) predominant occasion options one of many faces of the promotion — Alex Pereira. He is because of defend his Mild Heavyweight title towards shock contender, Khalil Rountree. The co-main occasion sees one other title on the road. This time it’s Raquel Pennington’s girls’s Bantamweight strap. She’ll defend that towards former champ, and bitter rival, Julianna Pena.

Additionally on UFC 307’s PPV predominant card is Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista, Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira and Kevin Holland vs. Roman Dolidze.

The “Prelims” headliner is Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley. Different notable fights on the undercard embrace Tecia Pennington vs. Carla Esparza, Court docket McGee vs. Tim Means and Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux (we hope).

As all the time, there’s heaps to guess on this card and we’ve bought odds for all of the fights under:

UFC 307 Fundamental Card Cash Line Odds

Alex Periera (-525) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+360)

It’s fairly apparent why Alex Pereira is such a giant favourite on this match-up. He’s going through a challenger, in Khalil Rountree Jr., who has not fought his manner by way of the ranks and earned the primary contender spot. As an alternative this challenger was in the proper place on the proper time. Rountree is right here as a result of the UFC wished to trot out certainly one of their hottest properties for the third time this 12 months. With Francis Ngannou’s debut with PFL subsequent week, I wouldn’t be shocked if giving Pereira such a brief turnaround, towards no matter opponent they might discover, was a part of a ploy to suck money from followers who might need been in any other case tempted to spend their PPV price range on Ngannou’s first MMA struggle since he beat Ciryl Gane in 2022.

Regardless how we bought right here, although, we’ve bought a struggle this weekend for the UFC Mild Heavyweight title. Pereira is undefeated on this weight-class having edged by Jan Blachowicz, stopped Jiri Prochazka twice (the second time in much more brutal style that the primary — see it right here) and Jamahal Hill (test it out right here).

The 13-5 Rountree is coming off stoppages over Anthony Smith (see it right here) and Chris Daukaus (see it right here). Previous to this purple patch he was stopped by Ion Cutelaba (see it right here) and Johnny Walker (see it right here).

Rountree has one shot KO energy, so you’ll be able to by no means rule him out utterly. And he often is the hardest puncher Pereira has ever fought in a cage. Should you actually wished to construct a case for Rountree you would additionally think about that Pereira is likely to be overlooking him right here and should not struggle with the identical sharpness or depth that has made him a family identify for MMA followers.

Nonetheless, you merely can’t look previous the truth that Pereira is likely to be the best KO artist in UFC historical past. And he’s in a match-up with a man who is understood to simply stand and bang. The sensible decide right here is Pereira measuring up Rountree over a spherical after which touchdown his fabled left hook someday within the second.

Pereira’s Achilles’ Heel is his takedown protection and grappling. And Rountree is just not the man to check that. In 15 UFC contests he’s but to try a single takedown and his submission makes an attempt per quarter-hour are 0.1.

So if you wish to guess on Rountree you will need to actually imagine he can hit Pereira on the chin. Rountree’s vital hanging accuracy is 39%. Pereira’s is 63%. So if you wish to take an opportunity on Rountree, be my visitor, however I’m not letting the Battle Horse wherever close to my cash. I’ll follow Poatan, thanks.

Greatest guess: Alex Pereira To Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-330)

Raquel Pennington (-170) vs. Julianna Pena (+140)

Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena have loads of historical past and unhealthy blood. However I will likely be shocked if any of that materializes right into a struggle that’s truly enjoyable to observe. I believe everyone knows what’s ready for us right here, a low quantity/depth kickboxing match with Pena making an attempt, and sure failing, to get takedowns.

Pennington is the favourite and I believe that’s as a result of she’s so defensively sound and expert at plodding her approach to selections. I believe she’ll win this bout, by stuffing Pena’s sluggish and telegraphed takedowns, whereas out pointing her with a really low threat boxing recreation that racks up strikes landed however comes nowhere close to producing a end.

I believe the perfect guess right here relies much less round who wins, however how they win. And this one looks as if it will likely be heading to a choice. 11 of Pennington’s 13 UFC wins have come by way of resolution. The one exceptions are her submissions over Macy Chiasson (see it right here), Jessica Andrade, and Ashlee Evans-Smith.

Pena has completed extra of her fights than Pennington has, together with a few floor and pound TKOs to start her UFC profession after which a really well-known submission over the GOAT Amanda Nunes in 2022 (see that right here).

There are some fascinating choices relating to betting this struggle to go the space.

You may get Pennington by resolution at +100 and Pena by resolution at +275. The struggle ending by resolution, regardless who wins, is -250.

For the betters who’re feeling daring you may as well get Pennington or Pena to win by cut up/majority resolution at +500 and +900 respectively. Their odds to win a unanimous resolution are +140 and +350.

I believe Pennington by way of unanimous resolution is the most probably consequence, however I’d play it protected on this bout (we’re in Salt Lake Metropolis and may get some unusual judging in consequence) and go for the shortest odds out there.

Greatest guess: Precise Methodology of Victory – Determination (-250)

Jose Aldo (+120) vs. Mario Bautista (-140)

Jose Aldo regarded nice in Could, when he completely nullified Jonathan Martinez in entrance of an adoring crowd in Rio. Aldo regarded considerably like his youthful self in that bout. However I’m left questioning if a part of the rationale why was that Martinez gave the impression to be completely swallowed up by the event. Martinez regarded extremely gun shy in that struggle and completely off his recreation. He was additionally very emotional as soon as the struggle was over.

Mario Bautista is just not as tough an opponent as Martinez was, in my view. Although Aldo stays the underdog right here (he was +145 towards Martinez). Bautista is coming off a unanimous resolution over Ricky Simon, which has to go down as the perfect win of his profession.

Bautista goes to attempt to take down Aldo and punish him on the bottom. He’s a place over submission man, however he’s expert at pouncing on a submission when the chance is there. He’s bought 44% accuracy on his takedowns and lands 2.25 of them each quarter-hour. On the bottom he makes an attempt a single submission per quarter-hour.

Aldo is known for his takedown protection. It’s at present clocked at 91%. He stuffed all two of Martinez’s makes an attempt (Martinez has a 35% success price). Extra telling, although, is that Aldo was capable of stuff all 16 takedown makes an attempt from present Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili once they fought in 2022.

I don’t suppose sufficient time has handed for us to downgrade Aldo’s abilities on this division. If he can keep on his toes towards Dvalishvili (who would take Petr Yan down a ton in his subsequent bout) he can achieve this towards Bautista.

So I believe this struggle will happen primarily on the toes. Aldo continues to be a unbelievable striker, although I don’t anticipate him to indicate a lot stopping energy at this stage of his profession. And his protection needs to be sufficient to stop Bautista touchdown something arduous.

Since I believe that is going to a choice, and since Aldo is the underdog, I believe taking Aldo with some factors is a fairly protected guess.

Greatest guess: Jose Aldo +3.5 (-190)

Ketlen Vieira (+550) vs. Kayla Harrison (-950)

Kayla Harrison did what we anticipated her to do in her Octagon debut. She rag-dolled and submitted Holly Holm with out an excessive amount of bother (see it right here). She did this as a -450 favourite. The most important query mark about that struggle was whether or not or not Harrison might make weight at 135 lbs, provided that she fought 20 lbs larger than that in PFL.

Harrison, not like many fighters — particularly within the girls’s division, appears to have a really wholesome and well-funded infrastructure round her. That enabled her to make the load then and I believe she’ll do the identical right here.

With out questions over her making weight, I’ve little or no doubts that she is going to dominate and defeat Ketlen Vieira.

Vieira was an fascinating prospect at one level and she or he’s bought some nice names on her resume (Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, Miesha Tate, Holly Holm). Nonetheless, I believe it’s truthful to say she met all these former champs and challengers at very fortuitous instances in her profession.

Vieira has a unbelievable takedown protection of 92%. However there’s takedown protection towards the sector and there’s takedown protection towards Kayla Harrison.

The percentages on Harrison profitable are extremely quick (and getting shorter) and it’s arduous to seek out a lot worth on the varied prop bets which can be out there. The perfect worth, on one thing that’s believable, is on odds referring to the struggle going deep or the space.

Harrison completed Holm within the second spherical, however she doesn’t end all her fights. 25% of her wins are by resolution and that’s towards some fighters who wouldn’t get an invitation on the Contender Sequence.

Aspen Ladd took her to a choice final 12 months. In 2022 Marina Mokhnatkina managed to see the judges scorecards. I wouldn’t be shocked if Vieira (a BJJ black belt below Andre Pederneiras) might keep away from being choked on the bottom and get us to the ultimate bell right here.

Greatest guess: Precise Methodology of Victory – Determination (-125)

Roman Dolidze (+135) vs. Kevin Holland (-160)

Roman Dolidze’s final struggle was an actual stinker. He got here in on quick discover to struggle Anthony Smith, somebody he’s skilled with the previous. And collectively they placed on a tepid sparring match which Dolidze gained, by way of resolution, with out both males getting (or making an attempt to get) out of first gear.

Kevin Holland’s final struggle was way more thrilling. He bought dropped by Michal Oleksiejczuk, however than caught the Pole in a struggle ending armbar (see that right here, it was a bizarre one). That win snapped a two struggle dropping skid for Holland, who was beforehand overwhelmed by Michael Web page and Jack Della Maddalena, each by resolution.

I like Dolidze on this match-up, particularly if he can check Holland’s famed wrestling weak point. Dolidze is just not a wrestle-centric fighter, however he is usually a prepared takedown artist. He didn’t have success with it in his final ‘actual struggle’, when he went 0-4 in a loss towards Nassourdine Imavov. He was 0-1 in a loss to Marvin Vettori, too. These guys have excellent takedown protection, although.

I believe Dolidze will likely be a prepared wrestler on this bout, partly as a consequence of Holland’s 5 inch attain benefit.

I like Dolidze to win this one straight up, however I like the purpose unfold on this bout, too.

Greatest guess: Roman Dolidze +3.5 (-175)

UFC 307 ‘Late Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Stephen Thompson (+170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-200)

Joaquin Buckley is on a very good run proper now. He cruised previous the lanky Nursulton Ruziboev to win a unanimous resolution within the headliner of a bout in his personal yard. I believe his capability to deal with the stress of performing in that slot stated quite a bit about him. That makes me suppose he’s not going to get nervous or anxious right here towards a giant identify who he actually ought to beat.

His win over Ruziboav got here after finishes over Vicente Luque (see it right here) and Andre Fialho (see it right here) and a choice over Alex Morono. These wins imply he’s undefeated since dropping all the way down to Welterweight.

Stephen Thompson drew the quick straw within the division by having to struggle Shavkat Rakhmonov final trip. He was submitted in spherical two by the tremendous prospect who has since graduated to contender (see it right here). In 2022 he beat Kevin Holland, forcing Holland to retire on the stool after 4 nice rounds of motion.

Previous to that win he misplaced to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns.

Thompson heads into this bout at 41 years of age, over a decade older than Buckley.

Sadly, I believe Thompson goes to get into a fireplace struggle that he can’t win on this bout. Buckley hits like a truck and I don’t know if Thompson is fast sufficient to keep away from his large pictures. Buckley may also hit a takedown right here and there, too, like he did towards Ruziboev.

Regardless of believing that Thompson will get hit, I nonetheless suppose he can go the space right here. Thompson is hard as nails, regardless of his fairly boy appears to be like. He’s solely been stopped with strikes as soon as in his profession, a superman punch from Anthony Pettis (see it right here).

Buckley does hit arduous, however he additionally spends numerous time lacking (36% accuracy on vital strikes). I believe he’ll damage Thompson, however I don’t suppose he has the accuracy to land a one shot KO on him or to land a combo that may put Thompson out. As an alternative I believe we’ll see an entertaining struggle with a bloodied Thompson dropping on the scorecards.

Greatest guess: Battle to go the Distance – Sure (-185)

Marina Rodriguez (+145) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-175)

Iasmin Lucindo regarded actually good towards the veteran Karolina Kowalkiewiz at UFC 301. In that struggle she went 83 of 136 (61%) with vital strikes and landed a few takedowns for good measure.

Marina Rodriguez is coming off a cut up resolution loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC 300. Earlier than that she was one of some fighters to beat the heck out of Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Previous to that win she was overwhelmed by Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos.

I believe that is going to be a very enjoyable struggle with numerous shut hanging exchanges on the toes. I do agree with the oddsmakers right here in favoring Lucindo, who’s youthful and quicker than Rodriguez. Lucindo additionally has a capability to vary the dimension of the struggle by way of her takedowns (53% accuracy on these).

Rodriguez continues to be a fairly efficient striker, but it surely’s appears fairly simple to take her out of that recreation. Andrade was capable of management her for near 4 minutes of their struggle. Jandiroba bought her down 3 times and held her for over 12 minutes.

I like Lucindo to edge her out on the toes and use her wrestling, when she wants ot, to get the outcome right here.

Greatest guess: Iasmin Lucindo (-175)

Cesar Almeida (-400) vs. Ihor Potieria (+300)

Cesar Almeida was not all he was cracked as much as be after we noticed him lose a choice to Roman Kopylov in June. He was the slight favourite in that struggle, having come off a TKO over Dylan Budka in his first non Contender Sequence UFC struggle. The previous GLORY fighter was billed as a devastating striker, however he simply couldn’t get it going towards Kopylov; who was first to the punch and capable of land 5 of 9 takedown makes an attempt and maintain Almeida down for nearly two total rounds.

I believe the matchmakers have given Almeida a break in sending him in towards Ihor Potieira. Potieria was choked out chilly by Michel Pereira early this 12 months (see it right here). That was the fourth loss for the Ukrainian in UFC (with all these losses being stoppages).

Potieria doesn’t have a wrestling recreation, so he’s bought nothing to threaten the kickboxer with. Almeida needs to be expert sufficient to land one thing on Potieria’s compromised chin and wrap this one up effectively throughout the distance.

Prediction: Underneath 1.5 rounds (-140)

Austin Hubbard (+150) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-180)

Austin Hubbard used his wrestling to beat Michal Figlak within the APEX earlier this 12 months. Alexander Hernandez is coming off a cut up resolution loss to Damon Jackson (in a bout he missed weight for).

Hernandez is likely to be combating for his profession at UFC 307. He’s misplaced two in a row and 4 of his final 5. These losses embrace a comeback standing TKO towards Billy Quarantillo (see it right here) and a submission to Conqueror of Paris Renato Moicano (see it right here). Issues simply haven’t panned out for him since his surprising debut TKO win over Beneil Dariush again in 2018 (see it right here).

I believe Hubbard would be the extra disciplined fighter and win the same struggle to what we noticed towards Figlak, one punctuated by reactive takedowns.

Greatest guess: Austin Hubbard (+150)

UFC 307 ‘Late Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Ryan Spann (-330) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+255)

We had been alleged to see this one a few weeks in the past down within the APEX. Nonetheless, Ovince Saint Preux bought sick. So now we’re shifting the struggle over to Utah.

Ryan Spann is coming off a foul TKO loss to Bogdan Guskov (see it right here), a cut up resolution loss to Anthony Smith, and a triangle choke loss to Nikita Krylov (see it right here). I truly picked towards Spann the primary time this bout was scheduled, as a result of I didn’t like how quickly it was coming after that loss to Guskov.

With that further time to heal, although, I’m now choosing Spann to get the win over the veteran.

The 41-year-old OSP regarded OK when he took a cut up resolution over Kennedy Nzechukwu in March. OSP bought that win as a +500 underdog. That adopted a KO loss to Philipe Lins, although (see it right here).

I believe Spann will likely be too large and athletic for OSP to deal with. Each these guys are very hittable, however I believe it’s extra doubtless that Spann rocks OSP than the opposite manner round (regardless of the success OSP had on the toes towards Nzechukwu).

The oddsmakers have set the over/below on this for 1.5 rounds. I believe that’s manner too quick. Spann may not rush in like he did towards Guskov and OSP is a affected person figther who ought to be capable of defend himself previous the primary spherical, at the least.

Greatest guess: Over 1.5 rounds (-120)

Carla Esparza (+145) vs. Tecia Pennington (-175)

Carla Esparza is getting back from a two 12 months hiatus right here to tackle Tecia Pennington, somebody she beat by majority resolution again within the TUF home in 2014. Esparza’s final struggle was a crucifix RNC by the hands of Zhang Weili (see it right here). That value her the UFC Strawweight title.

Pennington is coming off of two cut up resolution losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.

Pennington’s profession is certainly one of shut selections. She’s misplaced numerous cut up selections, however she’s additionally been on the both finish of unanimous selections that had been very near name.

Each these girls have fought the who’s who of 115 lbs. And each are on the incorrect aspect of 35.

The massive query right here is how does Esparza take care of all that point off? I believe the lay-off is usually why we now have Esparza at plus odds. Traditionally, she’s been much better than Pennington of sealing the deal in a struggle and doing the issues you could do to erase doubt amongst judges.

With out the lay-off I’d decide Esparza. With this present state of affairs (Esparza has additionally introduced that is her retirement struggle) I lean Pennington. Nonetheless, it is a struggle tailor made for over, goes the space, ends by cut up resolution picks (which you’ll parlay with different stuff).

Greatest guess: Over 2.5 rounds (-660)

Court docket McGee (+175) vs. Tim Means (-210)

This struggle has Spike TV written throughout it. After I shut my eyes and give it some thought, I see the guitars on the wall of the Onerous Rock Lodge and On line casino and might hear Mike Goldberg telling us their attain is “just about an identical.”

Court docket McGree and Tim Means each come into UFC 307 as 40-year-olds. McGee is on a 3 struggle dropping streak which incorporates brutal KOs from Matt Brown (see it right here) and Jeremiah Wells (see it right here).

Means was sparked out by Uros Medic in April (see it right here). He’s misplaced 4 of his final 5, together with submission losses to Alex Morono and Kevin Holland.

I like Means as a result of I believe age has executed much less to sap his hanging recreation than it has to sap McGee’s wrestling/grinding recreation. McGee could spend numerous this struggle urgent into Means, giving The Soiled Chicken numerous alternatives to make use of his Thai clinch to land nasty knees and check McGee’s broken chin.

Greatest guess: Tim Means (-205)

UFC 307 Lengthy Pictures!

Right here’s a few lengthy pictures for these people who need to put a little bit on one thing that may include a giant return.

5-pick parlay: Esparza vs. Pennington Over 2.5, Spann vs. Saint Preux Over 1.5, Rodriguez vs. Lucindo Over 2.5, Thompson vs. Buckley Over 2.5, Pennington vs. Pena Over 4.5 (+452)

A few of these fights appear very sure to go the space (each Pennginton bouts), however I like all these to go the space, if not simply lengthy sufficient to set off the win. I believe Spann vs. OSP’s line is very odd and is giving each males an excessive amount of credit score offensively (and OSP not sufficient credit score defensively).

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. – Battle to finish in 1st 60 Seconds of Spherical 1 – Sure (+800)

Many of us are assured that Pereira goes to starch Rountree on this struggle. Who says it doesn’t occur within the first spherical? I believe Pereira may need to really feel it out for a spherical earlier than actually attacking, but when Rountree tries to catch Pereira chilly he may very well be countered and slept in 60 seconds or much less.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison – Level to be Deducted – YES (+2000)

I like this one. It has to hit finally, proper? I believe it is a good candidate for the guess. Vieira may seize the fence or Harrison may get too handsy on the gloves or shorts. After all we’d like a referee with the heart to deduct some extent, although.

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your entire UFC 307 struggle card proper right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) predominant card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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