Andie Anderson desires to do critical journalism, however as a substitute she’s caught writing how-to columns for a girls’s way of life journal. The 2003 characteristic movie, Methods to Lose a Man in 10 Days, follows Andie (performed by Kate Hudson) as she makes an attempt to show that even a conventionally enticing straight girl will discover herself single in a sizzling minute if she commits all of the widespread fake pas identified to drive straight males away. The topic of her journalistic experiment is Benjamin Barry (performed by Matthew McConaughey), who coincidentally is working an experiment of his personal. He claims to have a foolproof system to make any girl fall in love with him in 10 days flat. The premises of each endeavors rely closely on conventional gender stereotypes, however ultimately the pair understand their state of affairs is extra nuanced, each by way of the circumstances and the people concerned (or at the very least as nuanced as a film that got here out in 2003 can muster).
Right here in 2024, Kevin Brown just lately famous on a MASN broadcast that Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson had grounded into solely two double performs all season. That felt startlingly low for a roughly 150-game pattern, however I’ll admit to not habitually monitoring the GIDP leaderboard. What’s a “good” variety of GIDP for a full season? Has anybody ever posted an ideal, no-GIDP season? What makes gamers notably good or dangerous at avoiding GIDP?
These questions have intuitive solutions, however that is FanGraphs; we like to check our assumptions round right here. Andie Anderson thought she knew all the plain methods to get dumped, however in observe it wasn’t as straightforward as she thought. It seems two is an efficient variety of GIDP. Solely Masyn Winn, with one, has fewer than Henderson this season, who’s tied for second place with Daulton Varsho, Riley Greene, and Jackson Merrill. Going again to 1949 (the earliest season with GIDP knowledge), and omitting 2020, there have been 9 gamers with GIDP-free seasons, most just lately TJ Friedl in 2023.
What makes a participant adept at avoiding the dreaded GIDP has an apparent reply: pace. The highest 20 spots on this season’s leaderboard are largely occupied by younger guys with higher percentile dash pace. Whereas the underside of the board is cluttered with outdated dudes and slow-moving catchers. It’s a fairly easy cause-and-effect relationship. Even changing GIDP to a per-opportunity fee stat (GIDP/PA with a runner on first with lower than two outs) confirms that hauling booty to first base is the easiest way to not get doubled up.
So perhaps it’s so simple as that. Run gradual and log two outs within the scorebook or run quick and make fewer outs. Commit traditional relationship errors and wind up single, or use your charismatic advertising abilities and fall in love. Issues may need been that straightforward for Andie and Ben had they not met such fierce opposition in each other. In any other case, her interrupting poker nights and forcing plant-parenthood of a “love fern” would have spawned the breakup Andie sought, whereas his home-cooked candlelight dinners and the magnetism of his bike would have birthed the love connection Ben lusted after. However each in films and baseball, opposing forces are at all times at work and a hitter’s aptitude or aversion for double performs isn’t solely measured in dash pace.
Finally each Andie and Ben discovered themselves deviating from the usual playbooks for his or her particular person endeavors, and in case you look intently on the prime and backside of the leaderboard, you’ll discover there are a couple of deviants there as nicely.
Cal Raleigh has the land pace of a walrus, and but in his 139 alternatives to floor right into a double play this yr, he’s cashed in on solely seven of them. Maybe one of many underrated options of the three-true-outcomes hitter is that it’s arduous to rack up GIDP in case you by no means put the ball in play. And in Raleigh’s case when he does put the ball in play, it’s within the air nearly 70% of the time. Simply exterior the highest 20, Adley Rutschman and Eugenio Suárez match an identical mildew. Each give a much less excessive proportion of their plate appearances to walks and strikeouts, however the sum of their line drive and fly ball charges nonetheless tops 65%. This trio desires to keep away from double performs and so they’re keen to take a seat by a Celine Dion live performance to do it. The most effective instance of a gradual runner who prevented double performs might be Matt Carpenter throughout his salsa-making 2018 marketing campaign. His dash pace that yr was 26.5 toes/second, 73.6% of his balls in play had been hit within the air, and he grounded into zero (!) double performs.
In comparison with avoiding double performs, there’s extra selection within the methods gamers discover to accrue GIDP even after they’re not notably gradual. George Springer’s dash pace is healthier than 72% of his friends and but, he ranks fifth in GIDP fee. The anticipated batting common on the groundballs of his 16 GIDP is .358, which suggests some dangerous luck, although it could be much less misfortune and extra Springer’s aptitude for deceptive an anticipated batting common mannequin. Anticipated batting common components in launch angle, exit velocity, and for groundballs, the hitter’s dash pace. Springer averaged an exit velocity of 96 mph on his double play balls, however in relation to grounders, the connection between exit velocity and batting common shouldn’t be as linear as a mannequin may assume. A bit of further oomph shortens the response time for defenders, however it additionally shortens the working time for the batter. And although Springer’s dash pace is 28.1 toes per second, his home-to-first time is 4.45 seconds. Different gamers with Springer’s dash pace usually want solely 4.34 seconds to get to first. Between how arduous he hits the ball, his unexpectedly gradual tempo up the primary final analysis, and maybe slightly dangerous luck, Springer winds up on the backend of a double play in 17% of his GIDP alternatives, making him the individual in a relationship who asks for a soda within the closing seconds of a playoff basketball recreation and lets a hairless canine pee on the pool desk.
Luis Arraez is a below-average runner by dash pace, however he’s principally Sonic the Hedgehog in comparison with the gamers he beat out to prime the GIDP fee leaderboard. He’s gradual, however he’s not lumbering-catcher gradual. So how’d he earn the highest spot? On this case, his best tremendous energy can be his best weak point. Consider him because the inverse of Raleigh. If Raleigh avoids GIDP by merely not placing the ball in play, Arraez is a magnet for them as a result of he can’t cease placing the ball in play. Whereas Raleigh is strolling or hanging out 40% of the time, Arraez does so solely 8% of the time. He posts a reasonably common groundball fee, however when that fee is utilized to a bigger amount of balls in play, you get the next chance for GIDP. (Fade in on a scene set in a movie show the place Arraez is upsetting a struggle at a screening of Sleepless in Seattle and getting his date punched out.)
Like Arraez, Jose Altuve can be extra seemingly than most to place the ball in play moderately than strike out or stroll, however to not the identical diploma. His 15% GIDP fee stems from placing the ball in play in a rote and predictable trend. Altuve’s batted ball location chart (see under), he’s one of many extra apparent candidates for a defensive shift amongst right-handed hitters. Certain, groups can’t placed on a full shift anymore, however Altuve nonetheless faces some method of strategic positioning on 38% of his GIDP alternatives, which ranks twelfth amongst certified right-handed hitters. Of the righty hitters who see a shift in such conditions extra typically than Altuve, solely Salvador Perez (shifted towards in 45% of his GIDP alternatives) has the next GIDP fee (15.3%), suggesting Altuve is impacted by defensive shading greater than his equally shifted-against friends. Placing extra balls in play and producing batted balls which might be simpler to defend makes Altuve the date who makes a photoshopped scrapbook of your make-believe future collectively, utilizing footage acquired out of your mom with out your data.
However the actual Andie Anderson Award winner for grounding into double performs at a formidable fee whereas utilizing each doable tactic accessible is Jake Cronenworth. The batted balls initiating his GIDP had been hit at a mean exit velocity of 95 mph, they generated an anticipated batting common of .288, and so they had been hit right into a shift roughly 1 / 4 of the time. He places the ball in play barely extra typically than his friends and owns an above-average groundball fee. He makes an excessive amount of contact, hitting the ball too arduous and into shaded defenders. Cronenworth entering into the field with the double play so as is Kate Hudson standing on the road, trying up at Matthew McConaughey on his balcony, having simply left his residence after Ben and Andie’s first encounter, and whispering to herself as she blows him a kiss, “I’m gonna make you would like you had been lifeless.”
Relationships are difficult. Whether or not it’s a romantic relationship between two individuals or the connection between a participant’s skills and their outcomes on the sphere. Simple how-to guides are restricted of their purposes, even with one thing as seemingly apparent as grounding right into a bunch of double performs.
