Jayson Tatum’s soar shot has change into a serious speaking level amongst not solely Celtics followers, however all through your entire NBA group. Can Jayson Tatum shoot? Did his time within the weight room break his soar shot? Does it even matter if Tatum can shoot?
For a participant that’s had as a lot success as Tatum, it’s slightly weird how hyper fixated folks (myself included) are on his jumper. The truth is that with regards to taking pictures an orange ball right into a basket 24 ft away, there is a component of luck and variance. That is true for all basketball gamers. Not simply Jayson Tatum.
For instance, Luka Doncic missed 21 straight three pointers within the NBA Finals. It’s exhausting to just accept as basketball followers that typically taking pictures, particularly within the playoffs, comes right down to luck. Followers don’t care about massive pattern sizes and statistical phrases like “variance” once we’re on our knees begging for a Tatum three pointer to go in. Gamers can have complete seasons the place they shoot nicely above their profession averages whereas however, gamers can have season-long taking pictures slumps.
Can Jayson Tatum shoot in any respect? The reply is unequivocally sure. Throughout a seven-year profession (common season and playoffs mixed), Tatum has made 1,559 out of 4,215 three pointers or 36.98%, which is above the league common ~36%. Extra lately, Tatum simply loved his greatest common season taking pictures the ball because the 2020-2021 season – handing over a three-point proportion of 37.5%. That’s an elite quantity once you think about Tatum’s excessive quantity and excessive issue three level shot food regimen.
Over the previous season, there have been 55 whole gamers that took not less than six three pointers per sport. Tatum ranked twenty seventh in three level proportion amongst them. Notable gamers that had a worse three level proportion than Tatum final season had been Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Trae Younger, Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, and Mikal Bridges. Of the 26 gamers forward of Tatum, I categorised 14 of them as catch and shoot specialists – Luke Kennard, Malik Beasley, Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, and many others. The purpose is, Tatum had a very spectacular common season taking pictures the ball once you take a look at his three-point shot profile.
Nevertheless, that proportion cratered within the playoffs to twenty-eight.3%. Within the Finals, he made simply 10-of-38. The Olympics weren’t any higher. He missed all 4 for Crew USA. So, the query stays: can Tatum nonetheless shoot?
The Muscle Concept
Some have hypothesized that Tatum has gotten too jacked, that the elevated dimension of his *wonderful* deltoids and biceps have impacted his taking pictures type and taking pictures capability. That is nonsense. As I simply laid out, Tatum shot 37.5% from three-point vary this previous common season, his highest mark because the 2020-2021 season. Did the muscle tissues solely affect Tatum’s taking pictures within the playoffs? If something, gamers are likely to lose a small quantity of muscle by means of the common season and postseason as there isn’t sufficient time of their schedule to carry as typically as throughout the offseason. To not point out, there are numerous examples of gamers getting considerably larger and stronger all through their profession whereas not dropping their taking pictures capability with Steph Curry being the obvious instance right here.
I’m not going to faux to be an expert shot physician. I simply bought again from the park the place I shot 39% (being beneficiant) on solo jumpers. However I’ve pulled collectively a number of three pointers from every of Tatum’s 2020, 2022 and 2024 playoff runs to check his shot type.
I have to emphasize how a lot I’m not a taking pictures skilled. If the title of the superstar taking pictures coach that mounted Grant Williams’ soar shot is Deadly Shooter, my superstar influencer taking pictures title can be Innocent Shooter. That being stated, I can’t make out any noticeable variations in Tatum’s taking pictures type. The principle takeaway from that video is what number of big pictures Tatum has hit in his younger profession.
Is the unhealthy taking pictures a playoff-specific drawback? Tatum has shot a mixed 30.4% from three over his final two playoff runs. These samples are simply too small to make sweeping declarations a few participant’s taking pictures capability. Throughout the final two playoffs mixed, Tatum shot 304 whole three pointers, which might make up solely half of Tatum’s 2024 common season three-point makes an attempt. We’re solely two playoffs faraway from the 2022 Finals run the place Tatum shot 39.3% from three which was seemingly a little bit of an outlier within the different path. It could be nice if we might simply get Tatum’s profession three-point common each evening. Sadly, the variance gods don’t function that means.
Shot choice
Tatum takes robust pictures. A number of them he has to take, however a few of them he in all probability doesn’t need to take. The truth is, superstars need to take robust pictures. Once you break down which pictures Tatum made versus which pictures he missed within the 2024 Playoffs, it’s very clear that the pictures that didn’t fall had been the tightly contested ones.
Tatum merely shot higher on tightly contested three-point makes an attempt within the earlier two playoff runs, 27.9% in 2023 and 29.2% in 2022 in comparison with 10.4% within the 2024 Playoffs per Synergy monitoring.
Do you need to make the case that Tatum ought to simply take much less robust pictures and drive to the rim extra? Certain, however the factor is, the numbers would point out that Tatum agrees with you. Tatum took much less tightly contested threes per sport within the 2024 Playoffs than in each the 2023 and 2024 Playoffs.
Additionally, simply taking a look at whole three-point quantity. This previous playoffs was Tatum’s lowest mark since he turned The Man within the 2019-20 season. Tatum took much less threes per 36 minutes within the 2024 Playoffs than each playoff run going all the way in which again to the 2018-19 season.
Did Tatum really feel that the three ball wasn’t there so he didn’t drive it? Did it change into apparent that the proper method was getting downhill and collapsing the protection again and again so he might spray passes out to elite shooters everywhere in the courtroom? In all probability slightly little bit of column A and slightly bit from column B. The truth that Tatum barely altered his method to higher affect the crew in a means that I didn’t beforehand discover till diving into that is such a quintessential Jayson Tatum trait. He’s been miscast as a Kobe disciple when he’s actually a wing model of Tim Duncan.
Does Tatum’s taking pictures actually matter?
You need to now consider deep in your coronary heart that Tatum really is an efficient shooter. We will now transfer on to the extra fascinating query of whether or not it really issues if Jayson Tatum is an efficient shooter. The reply isn’t any, it doesn’t matter.
To place it merely – if Jayson Tatum had hit another three pointer per sport within the playoffs, he would have shot 42% from three and the Celtics would have gone 16-3 on the way in which to the title. That is what makes Jayson Tatum particular and distinctive as a participant. His affect is just not outlined by his three-point shot stepping into.
So long as groups proceed to protect Tatum as if he can shoot, that’s all that actually issues. Simply the specter of Tatum’s pull-up three opens up all of the driving lanes we noticed within the Finals. He has to maintain taking them. And extra importantly, it doesn’t matter if Tatum isn’t a fantastic shooter as a result of he’s wonderful at each different aspect of the sport of basketball which is why Tatum’s affect on profitable is just not on the mercy of the taking pictures variance gods.
That is simply absurd versatility and affect. Firstly, Tatum is guarding the opposing middle Evan Mobley, which isn’t one thing you may ask many wings within the NBA to do. Max Strus finds Isaac Okoro on a slip to the rim. Tatum helps off Mobley to guard the rim and forces the miss. This results in a wide-open Al Hoford three in transition, which he misses, however that’s okay as a result of Tatum will get the offensive rebound with a managed tip again to Horford. Al then finds Tatum within the publish. Tatum skips a cross to Jrue Vacation within the nook for a large open three. That’s a five-point swing in a 1-1 playoff sequence on the street. I’d like to spend extra time speaking about all of the alternative ways Jayson Tatum impacts a basketball sport, however we’ll have to save lots of that for an additional day.
It wasn’t an accident that Jayson Tatum led the Celtics in playoff factors, rebounds and assists; whether or not or not Tatum’s three-point shot falling or not was largely irrelevant. Clearly, the orange ball going within the basket extra typically can be higher for each Tatum and the Celtics. However once you’re the engine of probably the greatest offenses and defenses within the NBA, one additional three-point basket per sport is just not meaningfully altering the fortunes of the Boston Celtics.
